By

Ruth Etzioni

29
Mar
2021

Flying Blind on the Origin of a Pandemic

I was always curious.  An early elementary school memory is my mother returning from a parent-teacher conference to report that my teacher thought I had “an enquiring mind.” Curiosity is what led me to a life of research, as a biostatistician and population scientist. Because in research, the questions you ask are just as important as their answers. The questions...
Read More
27
Aug
2020

Convalescent Plasma: Look Before You Leap

In the last few days I have been wondering how Michael Joyner and Arturo Casadevall have been feeling. Joyner and Casadevall are the first and senior authors, respectively, of the report, “Effect of Convalescent Plasma on Mortality among Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: Initial Three Month Experience,” posted on Medrxiv on August 12. The preprint server allows researchers to make their...
Read More
15
Jul
2020

Do We Need Models Anymore?

Long ago, in the early days of the pandemic, models were everywhere in the news. As our lives were upended and everything became uncertain, models were there to provide some predictability in the face of the unknown. Never mind that predictions varied wildly – between models, and even within the same model at different time points. The models agreed that...
Read More
19
May
2020

Getting the COVID-19 Numbers Wrong

When I was in college, everyone wanted to major in psychology. I signed up, but switched out after only a few weeks. Why? Well, the more I read, the less I seemed to know. Psychology, after all, is an inexact science. I sought refuge in the exact worlds of computer science and mathematics. Those courses led me to build a...
Read More
5
May
2020

Giving Models and Modelers a Bad Name

As someone who has spent a career building and studying disease models, primarily for cancer, the latest update from Chris Murray and the IHME model makes me cringe. The IHME model, readers will recall, has been frequently cited by the White House coronavirus task force. On May 4, the IHME called a press conference to release the results of their...
Read More
14
Apr
2020

Why COVID-19 Can’t Be Directly Compared With the Flu

A few years ago, I was preparing for a live radio interview about prostate cancer screening, my main area of research for the past 20 years. As a statistician focused on getting the numbers right, I disagreed strongly with the new national recommendation from an influential task force that guides practice and reimbursement. Members of that task force argued against...
Read More
7
Apr
2020

COVID-19 Models: What Makes Them Tick?

As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds, questions about its likely course are much on our minds. How long will it last? How bad will it get? And are we doing enough to flatten the curve? These questions are not about the past, but about the future. Models are now frequently cited in public by elected leaders to inform expectations and justify...
Read More