13
Dec
2020

The US is Teeming With SPACs, Why is the UK at Zero?

Uciane Scarlett, principal, Oxford Sciences Innovation

Biotech startups from the UK traditionally have a financing strategy that leads to one of two places – the NASDAQ or the NYSE. This means learning how to follow a US-centric playbook.

About 10 percent of the biotech IPOs on the US markets this year come from companies based outside the US. This is consistent with trends of the past and something my firm, Oxford Sciences Innovation (OSI) expects to continue for years as our 5-year old life sciences portfolio matures.

Financial capital is so abundant in the US that we now see large “blank checks” being bandied about in search of promising startup companies.

These Special Purpose Acquisition Companies, aka SPACs, more recently are being run by private equity and venture capital firms looking to the public markets as a unique channel to raise large sums of capital other than traditional limited partners that come from the world of pension funds, endowments, and foundations.

Bruce Booth’s blog on Oct. 15 provided a good summary of the trends observed regarding healthcare SPACs. In 2020, almost 24 healthcare SPACs were raised or announced with the goal of putting $3.4 billion to work in emerging companies. For some perspective on how much money that really is, Booth compared the boom in SPACs to the entire US healthcare IPO market in 2019.

That year, before the pandemic, biotech companies raised a total of $4 billion through IPOs.

In the past, SPACs weren’t in favor with US investors. But now there are entirely new pools of capital seeking biotech opportunities. They are turning to biotech specialty funds for help in identifying opporutunities. The list of quality investors taking advantage of the SPAC boom this year includes 5AM Ventures, MPM Capital, Deerfield Management, and RA Capital, among others.

The resurgence of SPACs is being driven by the volatility in the markets amid the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with rising awareness of opportunities in biotech, according to Bloomberg and Pitchbook in their 2020 COVID-19 market impact reports. SPACs have their appeal for healthcare companies because they present a fast and cost-effective way to raise capital.

Now that prominent investors have entered, SPACs also provide the opportunity to have a high-quality healthcare investor as a sponsor. That’s an important signal to generalist investors seeking to separate the wheat from the chaff.

For investors who sponsor these blank check entities, it’s a familiar private equity structure with liquidity, regulations, and transparency provided by well-functioning capital markets. The typical financial structuring of a SPAC would consist of 3-10% capital provided by the sponsor in order to identify assets and operate a nascent company within a 18-24-month window. Once that initial work is done and all the financing flows into the SPAC, the initial sponsors, on average, own up to a 20% equity stake. The rest of the money comes from investors who follow the leader (the sponsor). It’s a fairly lucrative line of work for those firms seen in the marketplace as worthy of being a sponsor.

So, there are plenty of reasons why investors and companies would want to get in on this trend.

Why then, with about 100 SPACs launched in the US already in 2020, aren’t we seeing this activity in other established markets like the UK? In the UK – a region with a variety of attractive biotech startups and a steady pipeline of IPO candidates – why do we see exactly ZERO SPACs in 2020?

The UK has experienced SPAC surges, according to data compiled by Paul Hastings, a UK-based law firm. The years following the 2007/2008 financial crisis, when public investors sought alternative structures, provided one such opportunity.

Some context is required to understand what’s going on in present day. When I asked Nooman Haque of Silicon Valley Bank London, he reflected on the public markets of 20-25 years ago, when the dot-com boom coincided with the debut of the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) of the London Stock Exchange (LSE).

The AIM caters to later-stage, often revenue generating or lower-risk companies and provides them with an opportunity to grow rapidly. Over 2,500 companies have been admitted to the AIM, and those companies had collectively raised more than $140 billion through 2019. Haque highlighted the early 2000s and how the financial crisis made it more difficult for companies to raise capital for a few years, and eventually created something of a brain-drain from the UK. He concluded that the country ended up with fewer technical analysts who could make credible recommendations on stocks to generalists.

The current UK public market now has a lean analyst base and narrower set of healthcare investors. The result is a lower volume of coverage overall and coverage that exists tends to be tightly concentrated in certain areas, such as genomics.

One year ago, shortly after moving to the UK, I attended a dinner hosted by Lazard & Co, a London-based investment bank. The theme was “Genomics Innovations” and we discussed the immense opportunity within the UK relative to other regions, especially given the role of the national health record system operated by the NHS.

The UK is within reach of cheap, high-volume gene sequencing, meaning it has the opportunity to link genomic databases with clinical manifestations of disease – something notoriously difficult in a place like the US, with a decentralized, privatized set of healthcare providers and insurers. This has contributed to a heightened sense for measures for success, as well as an increased appetite for innovative companies with genomics platforms by UK analysts covering healthcare.

So, while Haque is correct in the reduced breath of coverage, the UK retains significant expertise in not only genomics, but also tools, diagnostics, and novel models for IP, commercialization, and financing.

This is exemplified in the fact that a majority of small-mid cap healthcare companies listed on the LSE/AIM, broadly fall within  these  categories:

  1. Tools and services, e.g. Horizon Discovery, which raised $113M in 2014.
  2. Medical devices and diagnostics, e.g. Creo Medical whose market cap more than doubled to $260M in 2019 after it IPO’d with a market cap of $103M 3 years prior.
  3. Novel or innovative financing models, e.g. Syncona, a life-sciences investment trust, which came to market through a reverse merger into BACIT, which raised >$500M 3 years prior, in 2016.

Typically, small-mid cap companies within the categories outlined above tend to be thinly traded on the NASDAQ. That tends to be the case, even after they raised large sums via IPO.

Case in point: Oxford Immunotec, a UK-based company and maker of tests for latent tuberculosis raised $64 million on the NASDAQ in 2013 – a choppy year in the markets, before things picked up in 2014-2016. Nooman Haque noted that Oxford Immunotec might have had a more vibrant post-IPO market experience if it had listed on AIM, instead of the NASDAQ.

Furthermore, select US-based companies have chosen to list on the LSE in past years:

  1. Tools and services, e.g. Maryland-based, MaxCyte was one of the top-4 performing IPOs in 2016 on the LSE, with a >200% performance almost a year after it IPO’d.
  2. Novel or innovative R&D models, e.g. Boston-based, PureTech Health has nearly tripled in value from its 2015 LSE IPO and is now in the FTSE250

Some US based companies have expressed interest in listing in a region where investors understand their model. For example, when Boston-based Allied Minds listed on the AIM in 2016, its CEO, Chris Silva, highlighted that their IP commercialization model was deeply understood by UK and European investors. That decision made sense, because UK investors were familiar with comparable models, such as Sheffield-based Fusion IP,  founded in 2001.

These examples each tell a story, but how are the UK healthcare markets performing overall, compared with the US?

UK investors are doing better than most would expect. In Q2 2020, the AIM 100 and AIM All Share’s percentage change was on par with that of the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ Composite at ~30%. While some of this growth was forecasted, the AIM listed diagnostic companies Novacyt and Genedrive shot up by a remarkable 365% and 894%, respectively, by Q3.

Not surprisingly, these companies have COVID-19 offerings that captured significant headlines and investor interest.

Additionally, the LSE remains more diverse vs. the NASDAQ when it comes to its investor base. For example, an LSE 2018 Life Sciences report highlighted that 31% of the domicile investors in securities in London were North American and included marquee names like Vanguard, State Street, Wellington, and BlackRock. The LSE has attracted global investors for several reasons, including lower underwriting costs and lower rates of litigation.

With this obvious opportunity, why has no group looked to the LSE in 2020 for a SPAC?

Several factors come to mind:

  1. The COVID-19 pandemic: Not really; in 2020 we’ve seen strong performance in healthcare relative to other sectors, like automotive and travel. Healthcare is where investors are placing their surplus cash in 2020.
  2. Market dynamics: the remaining uncertainty around Brexit, possible trade wars and a potential economic slowdown are additional factors that might be making investors “gun shy” about investing in LSE/AIM listed SPACs.
  3. High-profile failures: the wind down of the Woodford fund has possibly impacted market sentiment, but it’s unclear the overall degree of impact.
  4. Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKSE): with a developing healthcare market in Asia, the launch of the HK Biotech Index, and the 2.5x increase in the number of healthcare company listings observed to date, there is clearly a new international player in town. The HKSE has seen >$1B in SPAC volume in 2020!

Stefan Hamill, a Senior Life Sciences analyst at Numis Securities in London, however, emphasized Brexit as a key driver which has impacted international allocations to the UK. This has seen global fund flows underweight the UK market for the last couple of years.

Numis has reported record revenues of late, Hamill said. Only 2% of revenues of the investment bank’s revenues were related to IPO fees – a remarkably low number. As recently as 2014, fees from IPOs were greater than 20% of revenues for Numis. Today, 20 percent of its corporate fees come from helping private companies raise capital, Hamill said.

There are signs of a return of the UK IPO market in the most recent quarter, Hamill said.Partly, this is because funds are beginning to get more comfortable with investing now that they can see a post-Brexit future.

While we cross our fingers that there is some sort of a Brexit deal in early 2021, which would facilitate a continuation of this trend, Hamill also highlighted lingering regulatory issues to navigate to facilitate SPACs. Given UK guidelines, SPAC sponsors in the UK have fewer options than in the US. Their US counterparts can redeem their shares if they don’t want to invest in the underlying target. UK sponsors cannot optout.

In short, there needs to be a reform of the LSE to enable UK’s participation in a more meaningful way given the rise of quality sponsors and the obvious opportunity within the UK market for healthcare companies.

The LSE remains 15-20 years behind the US, but there is a density of quality investors and analysts who understand distinct areas within healthcare, possibly better than other regions.

Coupled with greater comfort around the impact of Brexit, high quality US (and for that matter, UK VC funds) sponsors should be considering the UK for SPACs in 2021.

Several pieces of the puzzle are already in place – technology, management teams, and pools of capital looking for biotech opportunities.

11
Dec
2020

The Vaccine Is Coming, and Scientists Need to Keep the Focus on Equity

Michele Andrasik, PhD. Director, Social & Behavioral Sciences and Community Engagement,
HIV Vaccine Trials Network at Fred Hutch; Clinical Assistant Professor, Global Health, University of Washington

As we navigate this pandemic, the discourse has often created a fog.

Science has been doing what it does – forming hypotheses, testing them, gathering vast amounts of data, and pressure-testing conclusions with unprecedented urgency. The ideas that pass scrutiny are being elevated into recommendations, while others are being discarded.

Science isn’t perfect. It is practiced by people, and people have flaws and biases. Communities of Color and other marginalized groups have been leaders in advocating for and securing the establishment of safeguards to reduce bias, increase inclusion and ensure the ethical conduct of science.

The HIV epidemic, where I have focused most of my scientific career, certainly was influenced by politics. This pandemic has been mired in an even more difficult stew of political ideologies, the need to continue operating the economy, and starkly different views about the limits of personal choice.

Lately, I’ve noticed more frequent rays of light shining through during this divided year. Public discussions this fall have begun to more often center on the larger public health implications and the personal and emotional impact experienced by those most impacted by COVID-19.

For example, witness the evolving discussion about school reopening, especially for young children, as we begin to better understand the risk they present of COVID-19 transmission, and the increasing risk of social, educational, and emotional delays they are suffering from school closures.

In December 2019, when the news was first announced that a novel virus that was spread through respiratory droplets was discovered and multiple cases confirmed, I braced myself. 

I knew what this meant for my community and communities of color across the US.  We were going to be hit and we were going to be hit hard. Numerous opportunities for exposure to a virus that spreads this way exist for communities of color. 

Greater percentages of people of color work in essential service occupations. Disproportionate numbers live in high-density housing, which increases close contact with others and creates more possibilities for exposure and transmission.

More people of color live in multigenerational households. This places our elders at greater risk, because they are in more frequent contact with younger family members. Many racial and ethnic minorities are especially vulnerable to this virus because of higher rates of pre-existing conditions, lack of insurance and limited access to quality health care. 

It is no surprise that nine months into the pandemic, communities of color are severely disproportionately impacted – greater cases of coronavirus infection, more instances of severe COVID-19 disease requiring hospitalization and a higher burden of mortality. The disparities persist as the COVID numbers continue to grow exponentially in the US.

Several weeks ago, we received the incredibly promising news that the Pfizer mRNA vaccine demonstrated over 90% efficacy in the prevention of COVID disease.  This was followed a week later by a similar announcement by Moderna, another mRNA vaccine developer. 

These developments have the potential to substantially ease the burden and address the disproportionate impact of COVID disease in communities of color.

To achieve this goal — of bringing the pandemic to an end for everyone — we must, as a scientific community, continue to prove that we are trustworthy.

That starts with communication. We need to provide information as soon as we have it, and ensure that we are forthright, transparent, and honest about what we know, what we don’t know and what we hope to learn as we obtain additional data.  

As the Emergency Use Authorizations roll out, it is imperative that we discuss the allocation of vaccines with transparency. This requires being mindful in our explanations of what emergency use entails and ensuring that we offer resources that will help providers and the general public make informed decisions. Mandates for vaccination won’t work, but clear communication about the benefits of vaccination will allow people to come to their own conclusions.

Ensuring that the information we provide is written in clear language, inclusive of diverse communities, and respectful of everyone is critical.

Efforts to ensure that the efficacy data results are well understood should be at the foundation of these bi-directional dialogues with community.

In our recent discussions about efficacy results with communities of color in Washington state and around the country, it has become abundantly clear that many do not understand the data. There is some confusion about the prevention of illness versus the prevention of infection.

It is imperative that we effectively communicate that efficacy (at least according to the Phase III Pfizer and Moderna vaccine results) indicates the prevention of severe COVID-19 disease. That will greatly reduce hospitalizations and death but will not translate into relaxing infection prevention measures.

The vaccines may be effective at preventing people from shedding and transmitting the virus, but we don’t know that yet, so this remains an important open question. This means that ongoing messaging about the importance of wearing masks, physically distancing and avoiding congregating in large groups is critical.

Given that these early vaccines will prevent severe disease and death, ongoing education about who is at most risk for severe disease progression is imperative.  

Risk for severe COVID-19 disease must be utilized to inform allocation decisions and the rationale for doing so must be highlighted as transparently as possible. The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices has followed a process along these lines – although these are recommendations. States, territories and the District of Columbia will be making their own decisions regarding allocation.

To address vaccine misgivings and questions about trustworthiness, we must clearly communicate the ever-changing vaccine landscape. This includes addressing concerns about availability and distribution.  This requires preparing communities for the potential scarcity of vaccines in early 2021, setting clear expectations about vaccine availability and providing transparent information about how long the period of vaccine scarcity is likely to last. 

Ongoing communication about vaccine safety and the actions being taken to assure vaccine safety must be a top priority. News of side effects are bound to spread around the world in minutes – whether they are serious concerns or not. See the two reported cases of anaphylaxis in the UK – it’s a concern that requires further monitoring and investigation.

This continuous monitoring for new signals as we engage in long term follow-up of vaccines, must be placed into the broader context of the vaccine’s safety and efficacy, and be accompanied by continuous education about what to expect upon vaccination.

What side effects are expected? Are they generally mild, moderate or severe? What is the vaccine efficacy after the first vaccination? Why are two shots needed for adequate efficacy? What will it mean if only one shot is taken? Why do I need to continue to take action to ensure reductions in the spread of the virus even after I am vaccinated? 

All of these questions and the many more that will, undoubtedly arise, require the provision of direct and clear answers to secure trust and effectively address vaccine hesitancy.  

Our reality will continue to shift as we obtain new data informing our path forward. Community members, scientists, essential workers, Americans are in this together. It will take all of us to move the science forward to see an end to this pandemic. 

Along the way we must continue to engage in open dialogue, sharing information as it becomes available, being transparent about what we know and what we don’t know.

In my lifetime, I have never seen a time wherein there was such a collective sustained focus on equity, inclusion, and social justice. Over the past year, I have seen the acknowledgement of, and importantly, the accompanying work, necessary to address supply chain issues, tribal sovereignty and data ownership and the effective utilization of the capacity, expertise and leadership of long-standing institutions serving communities of color.

This is progress.

The work must continue, and is continuing. Relationship building and strengthening partnerships among institutions, organizations and communities must be centered as we continue transparent communication and ensure that all of us have the resources we need to make informed decisions. Our group has done work with organizations like the YWCA, UnidosUS, the Mexican Consulate, the Urban League, numerous faith-based organizations and the Urban Indian Health Institute, and we believe these relationships will help establish a strong foundation for improving health during the pandemic – and potentially long after it’s over.

In the coming months, we will be presented with many opportunities to demonstrate mindful implementation of an effective public health intervention. Working together with a focus on strong communication, transparency and trustworthiness will help to ensure that all of us — particularly those most impacted — are protected.

Michele Andrasik, PhD is the director of social & behavioral sciences and community engagement for the HIV Vaccine Trials Network at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and a clinical assistant professor of global health at the University of Washington.

10
Dec
2020

Pfizer, BioNTech Vaccine Gets FDA Advisory OK. Now Comes More Hard Work

Luke Timmerman, founder & editor, Timmerman Report

The good news this week was really one of those good news / bad news stories.

An expert panel of FDA vaccine advisors looked at Pfizer’s presentation for the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine candidate, and saw the outstanding results for what they were.

The vote was 17-4 (with one abstention) to recommend that the FDA give the go-ahead for an Emergency Use Authorization. This is the first step in the nation’s biggest-ever vaccination campaign. Next week, we can expect another step when the committee reviews Moderna’s application.

The bad news was that this meeting was a missed opportunity. There were technical sound glitches. Too much time was spent on picayune matters (include 16 and 17-year-olds in the label or just 18+?). Not enough time was spent on important questions (getting a careful read on potential anaphylactic reactions, vaccinations for pregnant women.).

The chairman was too fixated on sticking to the allotted time, and not fixated enough on fostering thoughtful dialogue. Panelists didn’t have a chance to explain their votes — usually the most revealing part of an FDA advisory committee meeting. Little was done to advance public education, and build public trust.

This last point can’t be emphasized enough. Within minutes, major media outlets and political leaders were butchering basic facts. The vaccine was not “FDA Approved!” as many headlines blared – it was a positive recommendation from an advisory committee. We all know that the FDA makes the actual decision to authorize, and its staff will craft important language in the prescribing information about safety warnings, restrictions, and what safety monitoring protocols will look like.

But just because we know it doesn’t mean everyone else knows it.

Which brings me to my main point today, the one that keeps twisting my stomach in knots.

We in the scientific community, and the biopharma community, have to do a lot of listening, and a lot of very careful communicating about vaccines in the months ahead. Really hard work lies ahead.

I’m not talking about distribution – the US military and FedEx and UPS are aces at this stuff. I’m talking about the messy business of communication and fact-based rational discussion – which our country doesn’t do well.

We all have work to do. Each of us can function like a trusted source, a knowledge node of sorts, for people in our circles – friends, family, neighbors, non-scientific colleagues.

My sense is that not enough people in biopharma have gotten the memo about how serious the vaccine hesitancy problem is in this country.

We are divided politically, to state the obvious. People are more than a little stir crazy being stuck at home, bombarded with endless gloomy headlines. Misinformation is everywhere.

How bad is this vaccine hesitancy you keep hearing about?

In November (AFTER the positive Phase III Pfizer and Moderna results), a Pew Research Center poll found:

  • About 1 out of every 5 people in this country said they would “definitely” not take a COVID-19 vaccine if it were available.
  • Another 1 out of every 5 people in this country said they would “probably” not take a COVID-19 vaccine if available.

That’s a lot of people — 2 out of every 5 people in America — expressing something between deep skepticism, and outright contempt.

Many of you are well aware that Tony Fauci and others have said we probably need 70-75 percent of the country to get vaccinated in order to achieve herd immunity that will bring the pandemic to an end.

We know that about 20 percent of the country – people on the far left who fear Big Pharma and people on the far right who fear Big Government – will not voluntarily take a vaccine. That means you have to assume that almost everyone who says they “probably” won’t take it will actually come around at some point and get the shot in their arm.

The margin for error is slim.

Now, consider this piece of data in Nursing World (h/t to TR reader Mike Kuczkowski for the pointer).

In October (BEFORE the positive Phase III vaccine results), a Pulse survey by the American Nurses Foundation was taken by 12,939 nurses across the country.

It found:

  • 34 percent of nurses said they would voluntarily take a COVID-19 vaccine.
  • 48 percent said they were “somewhat confident” a vaccine will be safe and effective.

It’s important to know this is a survey that doesn’t use scientific random sampling. Sentiment may also have shifted a bit in November, after positive news on the vaccines.

But I’m still alarmed that nurses – an educated group of healthcare workers who have been on the frontline doing heroic work this year – have so little confidence in the vaccine cavalry.

Nurses are among the most trusted of all professionals in America. If they send doubtful vibes, or traffic in misinformation about vaccination – then we have trouble ahead in this vaccination campaign to come.

I talk to many biopharma leaders, and I don’t think this is high on many agendas. Many of you are logical thinkers, like Spock. Many assume that a 95 percent effective vaccine with minor side effects is something everyone will want. Many of you aren’t surrounded by crazy people. Some of you may be thinking about the past, when you could shrug off “anti-vaxxers” in Marin County as fringe actors. Maybe you just color between the lines of what regulators say you can say about medical products, and assume communication is someone else’s job.

Maybe Obama, Bush, Clinton, LeBron and Ellen DeGeneres will take care of that.

Maybe these people can help to some degree. But I think this takes all of us. We are all knowledge nodes, trusted by people in our little network bubbles. We should take that responsibility seriously. Let’s pick up the phones, talk with people we haven’t talked with in a while, and spend more than half the conversation listening (even when cringe-worthy things are said).

But when the conversation is done, let them know you’re ready to roll up your own sleeve for that shot.

I sure am.

 

Science

  • Analytical validity of nanopore sequencing for rapid SARS-CoV-2 genome analysis. Nature Communications. Dec. 9. (Rowena Bull et al)
  • Temporal and Spatial Heterogeneity of Host Response to SARS-CoV-2 Pulmonary Infection. Nature Communications. Dec. 9. (Niyati Desai et al)

Vaccines

Long COVID

  • COVID Survivors With Long-Term Symptoms Need Urgent Attention. Summary of NIH Summit. NYT. Dec. 4. (Pam Belluck)
  • This COVID-19 Long Hauler is Still Trying to Recover. Timmerman Report. Dec. 7. (Blair Clark-Schoeb)

Science-Industry Relations

  • An Opportunity to Improve Innovation. Science. Dec. 11. (Holden Thorp)

Deals

South San Francisco-based Atara Biotherapeutics secured $60 million upfront through a partnership with Bayer. The companies will work together to develop off-the-shelf and personalized T-cell therapies for mesothelin-expressing cancers.

BridgeBio Pharma and Maze Therapeutics agreed to form a joint venture, Contour Therapeutics, to develop precision medicines for cardiovascular disease.

Financings

San Diego-based RayzeBio pulled in $105 million in a Series B financing to advance its platform for making targeted radiation therapies for cancer. Venrock Healthcare Capital Partners led.

Cambridge, Mass.-based Vigil Neuroscience raised $50 million to develop microglia-targeting therapies for neurodegenerative diseases. Atlas Venture and Northpond Ventures co-led. Ivana Magovčević-Liebisch is the startup CEO.

Cambridge, Mass.-based Remix Therapeutics raised $81 million in seed and Series A financing to advance its small-molecule discovery program aimed at RNA processing targets.

Mountain View, Calif.-based DeepCell, a company using AI for cell classification and isolation research tools, raised $20 million Series A led by Bow Capital and joined by Andreesen Horowitz.

Boulder, Colo.-based Edgewise Therapeutics raised $95 million in a Series C financing to advance oral treatments for Duchenne and Becker muscular dystrophies. Viking Global Investors led.

South San Francisco-based Sutro Biopharma, the developer of targeted drugs for cancer and autoimmunity, raised $126 million in a stock offering priced at $21 a share. The company raised cash after presenting clinical data at the American Society of Hematology.

Mountain View, Calif.-based IGM Biosciences raised $200 million in a stock offering at $90 a share. The company also seized upon momentum from a positive presentation at the ASH annual meeting of its bispecific antibody directed at CD20 and CD3 for relapsed / refractory non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.

Boston and San Francisco-based Pear Therapeutics, the developer of digital therapeutics, raised an $80 million Series D financing led by SoftBank Vision Fund 2.

Our Shared Humanity

  • Make it easier to stay safe from COVID-19, instead of shaming and punishing people. USA Today. Dec. 7. (Joshua Borcas and Gregg Gonsalves)
  • Headlines Don’t Capture the Horror We Saw in a New York Hospital. America Must Not Let Down Its Guard. The Atlantic. Dec. 6. (Kasey Grewe)
  • Medical Schools See an 18 Percent Increase in Applications. They’re Calling it the Fauci Effect. The Hill. Dec. 7. (Zack Budryk)
  • The Danger of Assuming That Family Time Is Dispensable. Americans who are desperate to see their loved ones need advice that goes beyond “Just say no.” The Atlantic. Dec. 9. (Julia Marcus)
  • The Hidden Fourth Wave of the Pandemic. America Hasn’t Begun to Face this Year’s Mental Health Crisis. NYT. Dec. 9. (Farhad Manjoo)

Our Fractured Political Discourse

  • Rick Santelli of CNBC and the Danger of Flouting COVID-19 Facts. Bloomberg News. Dec. 7. (Timothy O’Brien)
  • Trump and Friends Got Coronavirus Care Others Couldn’t. NYT. Dec. 9. (Sheryl Gay Stolberg)
  • ‘A Scary Time’: Researchers React to Agents Raiding Home of Former Florida COVID-19 Data Scientist. USA Today. Dec. 9. (Alessandro Marazzi Sassoon)

Science Features

  • Infected After 5 Minutes, From 20 Feet Away. South Korea Study Shows COVID-19 Spread Indoors. Los Angeles Times. Dec. 9. (Victoria Kim)
  • Blunders Eroded US Confidence in Early Vaccine Frontrunner. NYT. Dec. 8. (Rebecca Robbins et al)

Epidemiology

  • COVID-19 Mortality Among American Indian and Alaska Native Persons — 14 States, January–June 2020. CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Dec. 11. (Jessica Arrazola, Matthew Masiello et al)
  • Evidence of Long-Distance Droplet Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by Direct Air Flow in a Restaurant in Korea. Journal of Korean Medical Science. Nov. 23. (Keun-Sang Kwon et al)
  • Racial Disparities in Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 Infection and Gynecologic Malignancy. ACS Cancer. Dec. 9. (Olivia Lara et al)

Management

Data That Mattered

South San Francisco-based Global Blood Therapeutics provided updates at the American Society of Hematology on inclacumab, an antibody directed at P-selectin, to reduce the frequency of vaso-occlusive crises (VOCs) in patients with sickle cell disease, and GBT021601, a hemoglobin S (HbS) polymerization inhibitor. GBT also said at ASH that its sickle cell disease treatment — voxelotor (Oxbryta) — was able to deliver greater than 1 gram per deciliter of improvement in hemoglobin improvement from baseline, through a 72-week study, for 90 percent of patients. The long-term follow-up is consistent with earlier presentations from 24 weeks of analysis.

South San Francisco-based Sutro Biopharma reported on its CD-74 directed antibody-drug conjugate at ASH. From 18 evaluable patients in a dose-escalation Phase I study, Sutro found the treatment to be well-tolerated, and saw no maximum tolerated dose. Of the 7 patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, the company reported 1 Complete Response and 2 Partial Responses. Enrollment is continuing at a higher dose.

San Diego-based Fate Therapeutics reported at ASH on its iPSC-derived off-the-shelf engineered Natural Kill cell therapy in refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. The NK cells are engineered to target CD19, the antigen where CAR-T cell therapies first found success. The company reported on a case study of a single patient who got a single dose, and achieved a Partial Response in the first dose cohort with 30 million cells. The response improved on the second dose, and no severe adverse events were reported, the company said. Shares rocketed from $60.71 a share prior to ASH to $96.85 at yesterday’s close.

Mountain View, Calif.-based IGM Biosciences reported at ASH on a Phase I dose-escalation study of its bispecific antibody directed at CD20 and CD3. Of the 14 patients with relapsed, refractory non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma on a variety of low doses, 9 showed evidence of tumor shrinkage, and 2 counted as Partial Responses. No severe side effects, particularly worrisome ones like cytokine release syndrome or neurotoxicity, were observed, the company said. Shares in the company boomed from $62.56 before ASH to a high of $133 a share on Wednesday, before cooling off.

Switzerland and Cambridge, Mass.-based CRISPR Therapeutics and its partner, Vertex, reported at ASH on their gene edited therapy for beta-thalassemia and sickle cell disease at ASH. All 7 patients with beta-thal – followed between 3 and 18 months after CTX-001 infusion, were able to stay off blood transfusions. All three sickle-cell disease patients, followed for 3 to 15 months, were free of vaso-occlusive crises – the painful episodes that often send sickle cell disease patients to the hospital. CRISPR Therapeutics now has a market valuation approaching $11 billion.

Cambridge, Mass.-based Evelo Biosciences reported on its orally available monoclonal microbial drug, EDP1815, from a Phase I study of 23 patients with mild to moderate atopic dermatitis (eczema). The drug showed a statistically significant improvement compared with placebo at Day 56, and improvements were observed as soon as Day 14.

Legal Corner

BIO, the California Life Sciences Association and Biocom filed suit in US District Court in Northern California against HHS and CMS over the administration’s attempt at drug price controls through the “Most Favored Nations” executive order.

Regulatory Action

The United Arab Emirates approved an inactivated COVID-19 vaccine from Sinopharm, the Chinese state-owned company. The UAE regulators said the Sinopharm vaccine was 86 percent effective in preventing COVID-19 infection, and 100 percent effective at preventing moderate to severe COVID-19 disease. The UAE didn’t provide a detailed breakout of the data. (See the statement). And NYT coverage.

Regulators in India declined to grant an Emergency Use Authorization to the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, asking for more safety and efficacy data, according to Reuters.

Personnel File

President-Elect Joe Biden selected Rochelle Walensky of Massachusetts General Hospital, an HIV researcher and savvy communicator, to be the new director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (STAT coverage by Helen Branswell)

San Diego-based Molecular Assemblies, an enzymatic DNA synthesis company, hired Phil Paik as VP of platform development. He was associate director of engineering at Illumina.

South San Francisco-based Global Blood Therapeutics hired Kim Smith-Whitley, M.D., the director of the Comprehensive Sickle Cell Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, to be executive vice president of R&D. She starts officially in 2021.

Andrew Peterson joined Broadwing Bio as founder and CEO. Broadwing is being formed by Maze Therapeutics and Alloy Therapeutics. Broadwing will develop targeted antibody drugs for ophthalmic diseases.

Science, Non-COVID

The Role of the Microbiota in Human Genetic Adaptation. Science. Dec. 4. (Taichi Suzuki and Ruth Ley)

10
Dec
2020

Vaccine Communication: Another Opportunity for Biopharma to Lead

We’ve all seen this movie, right?

It feels like we’re in the fake final scene before the jump-scare and the bad guy makes one final push. It’s that point in the 1986 sci-fi film “Aliens” where Bishop gets ripped in half and Ripley (Sigourney Weaver) realizes in horror that the Alien Queen snuck aboard her ship.

Normal, whatever that means for you, seems so close and real, doesn’t it? But I can’t shake the feeling the horizon’s farther away than we hope it is. And if so, that presents an opportunity I hope Biopharma grabs by the spike protein: the chance to help people understand that it’s not over yet and might not be for a while.

Without a doubt, the vaccine readouts are a huge milestone. I’ve read the reports over the past months with joy and excitement. The record pace for vaccine development would put Han Solo’s Kessel Run from “Star Wars: Episode IV A New Hope” to shame.

Photo of TR Contributor Kyle Serikawa

Kyle Serikawa

The coming Emergency Use Authorizations deserve big trophies, for Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna. These are the kind you put proudly in the center of the display case, pushing aside the participation awards and moving the team spirit plaques to the back. But these heroic efforts won’t be enough.

A few weeks ago, Mike Kuczkowski penned a great call on this site for a new model of vaccine communication. He laid out a plan to push out a message on all fronts, appealing to left brain, right brain, and hopefully lizard brain. He called for pulling in advocates from across a range of sources, including some unexpected ones like employers.

After all, if the Broncos can elevate a rookie wide receiver from their practice squad with just twenty-four hours advance notice to start an NFL game at quarterback – the most difficult and important position in football — surely it’s not too much to ask the local hardware store owner to put out some PSAs for vaccine awareness?

It’s a great plan and could make a big difference in vaccine uptake and getting us to that normal if all of Kuczkowski’s ideas play out.

But here’s the Drosophila in the beer. The message won’t do as much good if the target audience never hears it, misunderstands it, or isn’t willing to listen to what’s been said. And it won’t be most effective if the message is only about vaccination.

There are two related roadblocks that could derail vaccination’s effectiveness. The first is people who do hear that they need to get vaccinated, but don’t get the full message about timelines and expectations The second problem is with people who aren’t listening at all.

In the first camp, are people who are just tired, man, of this damn virus and want it all to end. Many are going to be eager to get the vaccine. But in their eagerness, there’s the danger of not hearing the caveats.

There are always caveats. Like, “We don’t know how long immunity lasts.” Or, “We don’t know if the vaccine prevents you from being infectious.” Or possibly, “We aren’t sure of the effectiveness in your particular demographic.” Those are just a few. Some people might assume that once they get that dose, they’ll be fine to go back to doing everything just like in good old 2019.

Then there are other people who aren’t first (or second or third) in line for the vaccine but hear that it’s being rolled out and think, “Ah, now that there’re vaccinated people out there, the overall risk is lower!” That may be true. But only to a small extent, at least until a majority of Americans get vaccinated. That could take quite a while. Pfizer has already had to walk back some estimated timelines for its rollout.

Anyone with a background in synthesis or formulation want to bet every other company’s rollout will go forward without a hitch? Not to mention the supply chain, storage and administration challenges.

There’s a need to communicate not just about the vaccine itself but about expectations and about needed behavior. Relaxing too early and dropping our most effective behaviors—meeting outside, in smaller groups, with distance and masks—could counteract all the benefits of a gradually increasing population of immunized people.

Biopharma could lead in this. Yes, the industry has a reputation problem, but it’s been trending up since the pandemic. Offering a clear voice, unified with local, state and federal leaders, not just urging vaccinations, but also providing measured guidance on when and how to begin relaxing pandemic behaviors, will help remind people that it would be a mistake to unmask too soon. And a conservative view of the future is needed all the more because of the other possible roadblocks.

The second group of people—those that PSAs can’t reach, those who reflexively distrust the media and the government (if you’re from the opposing party)—they worry me even more. In information theory terms, a vaccine communication strategy could do things to reduce entropy of the message (“Get vaccinated, keep wearing a mask”), but if the receiver is turned off, the message doesn’t get there.

We’re living in a strange time. No, not the pandemic. Or not that pandemic. I’m talking about the epidemic of misinformation and the willingness of people to listen to the misinformation, to embrace the entropy instead of the signal.

It’s been a frustrating realization for me, but we’re all far more susceptible to appeals to emotion and identity and confirmation bias than I wish was the case. The internet has always been a double-edged sword and it feels like, with its help, many have been pushed beyond some information black hole event horizon, where a good fraction of them won’t be able to get back.

Two things here. First, some of them can come back. They are another opportunity for Biopharma to make a difference, but perhaps through a different approach. Anecdotally, I and others have found that close relationships and local ties can help in breaking through science denialism. Could Biopharma start programs to train staff in science communication and encourage them to have calm two-way conversations with friends and relatives and neighbors who are expressing skepticism?

Second, because there are those who can’t be reached, there will be an even greater need to caution people to stick it out for a while longer. If a fraction of the population refuses vaccination, there is an upper bound to how high the vaccinated proportion can reach. If 80 percent of the population is open to the possibility of getting a vaccine, and we need 70-75 percent of the country to get vaccinated for herd immunity, that leaves very little margin for error. Almost everyone who’s open to getting vaccinated will have to actually get vaccinated.

Anything less than that high level of vaccination across the population means that conditions for a return to normal will take a longer time to arrive. That, in turn, means that all the pandemic behaviors we are so tired of will have to continue. Not just for our own health, but for everyone’s.

The next months will tell how effectively the messaging gets out, whether from Biopharma or other sources. I hope our industry embraces this chance to lead and shine. And I’ll be eagerly awaiting my turn in line for my needle stick, whenever it comes. But in the meantime, and for a while after, I hope you don’t mind if keep my distance and smize from behind my mask when we meet.

Disclosure: The author is a Program Manager at Adaptive Biotechnologies. All views or opinions expressed are his own and not of the company.

9
Dec
2020

Priority for Next Administration: Tech-Ready Health Leadership

David Shaywitz

From the moment Joe Biden takes the oath in January, his Administration will confront a brutal onslaught of urgent health challenges.

The work starts with the complex distribution of a multi-dose vaccine to a remarkably skeptical public. To do this job, and countless others, there is a desperate need to upgrade the nation’s health data capabilities, which were pressure-tested by COVID-19 and, with rare exceptions, found wanting.

Our country’s health data are scattered in thousands of local hospitals and health systems. Federal legislation such as the HITECH Act has driven, and subsidized, the digitization of much of this information. Even so, these data still tend to be organized and maintained locally. Sharing is publicly championed by all stakeholders, yet in practice, is limited and begrudging at best. Data hoarding remains the rule rather than the exception.

Leaders of health systems maintain their iron grip on data because, other than transiently positive PR, sharing is perceived to offer only downside risks. These include exposure of information to competitors (as important to most “non-profit” hospitals as to anyone else), risk of liability, and the cost and inconvenience of organizing the information in a fashion suitable for distribution.

Some technology tools and policy initiatives have facilitated a modicum of interoperability. But health data remains profoundly illiquid, impairing communication between health systems, and between health systems and local and national health officials. 

Data access and usability difficulties have also impacted the care delivered within an individual hospital. Like Lucy and the football, this is continuously frustrating the evergreen, ever elusive dream of a “learning healthcare system.”

The data sludge impairs the care of individual patients seeking care from their local physician; it also limits the ability of national health leaders to recognize, understand, and organize a response to a global emergency like the pandemic. 

Doctors in training are taught that the first step in a medical emergency is to take your own pulse, and calmly assess this situation before you. It’s hard to do this as a nation when you have such limited visibility into timely and reliable health data.  

To be sure, there have been distinct digital successes as well; telehealth, for example, offered a lifeline to many patients unable or unwilling to leave their homes. Adoption of this existing technology was catalyzed by the easing of regulatory and reimbursement constraints. Those barriers may well be reimposed when the emergency subsides. 

Virtualization – and temporary regulatory flexibility – also enabled clinical trials to continue during the pandemic. Whether these approaches – often far more convenient for study subjects – persist after the pandemic remains to be seen.

The pandemic has also exacted a huge economic toll on many physicians and care providers. In a fee-for-service system, revenue correlates with the volume of care provided. 

Many patients stayed away from hospitals because they were afraid of acquiring COVID-19, often adversely impacting both the patient’s health and hospital’s bottom line. This will surely prompt many physicians and health systems to once again contemplate alternative revenue models generally built around the concept of value-based care, and prioritizing health maintenance. 

Successful implementation of these approaches, however, will require a suite of digital capabilities – such the ability to reliably assess and carefully monitor the health of a population of patients – that most providers, unfortunately, currently lack.

All of these challenges, of course, also represent a tremendous opportunity to leverage technology to improve health, elevating not only the care provided by our leading hospitals, but also increasingly moving the locus of care outside the hospital, and enabling patients to access a greater variety of health and wellness services the way they already experience most other services, from media to banking – from the convenience of their home, office, car, or community. 

Importantly, this will also require a heightened awareness of, and attention to the lack of access to broadband Internet technology, and necessary computer equipment among some of our most vulnerable populations. This need for technology access includes both urban and rural populations.

As President-Elect Biden contemplates the composition of his incoming administration, he should ensure his incoming healthcare team includes proven executives capable of recognizing and leading through these important contemporary digital challenges.  

The combination of medical training and deep technology chops have not been a prominent feature among most top nominees identified to date. Xavier Becerra, for example, selected to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), is an attorney, as is the current Secretary of Health and Human Services, Alex Azar.  

Biden advisor and COVID-19 response coordinator Jeffrey Zients — a business executive who was CEO of the Advisory Board Company (a healthcare consultancy) and the expert called in to salvage the botched healthcare.gov rollout — surely recognizes the value, and perhaps even necessity, of digital sophistication on top of patient care experience for future healthcare leaders.  

It’s an elusive and essential combination of traits that Biden would do well to prioritize as he contemplates future appointments, such as the next FDA Commissioner and Director of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. 

The complexities of digital transformation sweeping across both healthcare and drug development require leaders with the tech expertise to grok these dramatic changes, and the clinical judgement to maintain focus on what really matters.

7
Dec
2020

Vaccine Trials: A Band of Brothers and Sisters

Dr. Larry Corey is an internationally renowned expert in virology, immunology, and vaccine development and a leader of the COVID-19 Prevention Network (CoVPN), which was formed by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the U.S. National Institutes of Health to respond to the global pandemic. He is a Professor in the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, past President and Director of Fred Hutch, and a Professor of Medicine and Virology at University of Washington.

On Dec. 2, the New England Journal of Medicine published an article coauthored by many prominent medical scientists, including physicians, who advocated for extending the time in which volunteers in the placebo group enrolled in the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 clinical trials should be followed.  

Essentially, they are arguing that the study volunteers – people who sacrificed for the greater good to join the trials in the first place – should be prohibited from getting the actual vaccines, even after the vaccines become widely available under an EUA (Emergency Use Authorization), because there is “additional scientific information that can be learned.”

Of course, there are always new things we can learn from a clinical trial. But at some point, we know enough that the risk to persons not being given these markedly effective vaccines is greater than benefit that can be learned from withholding vaccination to these persons. 

As a physician and a scientist, I recognize no one clinical trial ever solves all the issues needing to be addressed for public health. However, in making decisions when to offer vaccine to placebo participants in a trial in which high efficacy has been demonstrated, one needs to carefully balance scientific interests with withholding the benefits of vaccination to clinical trial participants themselves.

We must consider the real issue of fairness, and perceptions of fairness, at both the individual and community level.

So, let’s discuss these issues.

First, let’s look at what’s to be learned from keeping people on placebo while the EUA is being evaluated and the early days of market authorization, when supplies will be scarce.

Both the Moderna and Pfizer studies, which enrolled 30,000 and 43,000 volunteers, respectively, have reached their goal. Enough information on the number of pre-defined cases of COVID-19 required to define the vaccines’ effectiveness has been reached. More than 150 cases of COVID-19 were found among participants in each trial, and the vast majority of those cases were in people who were on placebo.

The analysis which compared the vaccine to the placebo occurred nearly two months earlier than projected. We got the answer quickly because people at high risk of infection enrolled swiftly in trials, and the widespread epidemic of COVID-19 across our country meant we didn’t have to wait long for cases to appear among volunteers.

The endpoints were well defined. Scientists asked, first and foremost, whether the vaccine reduced the chance of people getting symptomatic disease. The most important secondary endpoint looked at whether the vaccine reduced severe disease (hospitalization).

The results were simply spectacular—approximately 95% efficacy in the primary endpoint; 100% in the secondary for the Moderna vaccine. Even more compelling is that the results were remarkably similar between both the Pfizer and Moderna clinical trials, which both are testing messenger RNA based vaccines.

That’s a key validation for this emerging type of vaccine technology.

To date, the only reported death related to COVID-19 in the trials was in the Moderna trial and that was in the placebo group.

These data are clear and compelling. It’s hard to believe any more data are needed to show that the vaccines reduce the likelihood of developing moderate-to-severe COVID-19. By keeping people on placebo, we are only subjecting them to a higher risk of contracting severe COVID-19 disease. Are we trying to show that hospitalization and/or mortality is only 90% rather than 100%? I doubt that.

Everyone wants to know how long the vaccine can protect people. More time is required to answer that question. But by the time January rolls around and more vaccine doses become available, we will have close to six months of data from the start of the clinical trials in late July.

As I’ll explain below, there is a very good way to assess vaccine durability. One way to assess continued vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 would be by vaccinating the placebo recipients in a crossover design.

This literally allows people who were on the placebo to “cross over” to get the real vaccine in a second phase of an ongoing study. The participants, and researchers, would still remain blinded as to what they are getting.

By continuing in this way, we could ensure that everyone in the study is getting vaccinated, while we’ll also get the chance to learn something new what the difference is between early versus late effects of vaccination. These data can be obtained by vaccinating the placebo recipients in early 2021, rather than simply waiting and watching them as more and more of them acquire COVID-19 disease in the trial. 

Understandably, people want more safety data, and longer-term follow-up.

However, to assess the infrequent side effects of vaccination, it is not the vaccine cohort in the Phase III trials (about 21,500 for Pfizer and 15,000 for Moderna) that will discern this. Instead, this information will be gathered from the cohort of millions of people who receive the vaccine under the EUA and are then closely followed post-vaccination.

Respecting the thoughtfulness of the guidance documents from the FDA, regulators still want to know whether vaccination can result in enhanced disease. They also want to compare the background rate of severe pulmonary infection in placebo recipients. So far, there is no evidence in either trial of severe pulmonary disease from vaccination. In fact, it is quite the converse.

Between the two trials, there are between 40 to 50 cases of severe disease, and while the details of these cases are not known to me or the public (and such data are critical to unpack), it all says these pneumonias and hypoxemias are in placebo recipients.

Should we be more worried about a chance of enhanced disease from the vaccine – even though there’s no evidence to say that’s a real concern – or should we be more worried about exposing unvaccinated placebo recipients who self-identified as at-risk of COVID-19 infection?

In the Moderna trial, 30 (16%) of the 187 reported cases of COVID-19 were classified as severe over the four-month review period. Do we really want to see another 30 people get severe disease by watching them for four more months? 

The question in my mind is what scientific justification is there to not vaccinate placebo recipients who had participated in the trial in which there was 95% efficacy and 100% effectiveness from hospitalization?

One can mitigate these numbers by saying only the healthy, so to speak, should be left alone. The tactic of differential handling of placebo recipients is, however, problematic. To take placebo recipients who fall under the category of EUA eligibility—in other words, medical care or first-line workers, nursing home personnel, those who are elderly or essential workers—and provide the vaccine because they are in group 1 of the EUA in their state, or nationally, is logical. But to deny their companions who joined them in being a clinical trial participant is quite problematic both from a social justice, fairness, and public perception point of view.

First, trial participants are essentially a community bonded together in a clinical trial. Thirty to forty thousand people were grouped together and placed under common scrutiny and rules.  

We in clinical trials authenticate this bonding by calling them a study cohort. In this medical vernacular all are equal and each benefits from the other. The goal of the cohort is to achieve the study goal, which is not asking participants to get sick, but recognizing that in the course of human life some people will develop this disease.

Within the common community of trial participants, did the endpoints on the trial come from the medical workers or the non-medical workers? Was severe disease only in the elderly or in one group or the other? Does it matter? Does a medical worker who participated in the trial deserve vaccination more than the group of essential workers or someone who lived in the household of an essential worker who developed COVID-19 on the trial? Does either group feel good that the other is excluded when they entered the trial as equals in their own community? Differential access inserts nonequity among this “Band of Brothers and Sisters.” Are they being asked what they want? If so, would they say that they deserve the vaccine more than someone else in the trial? Did the medical worker who did not get infected sacrifice more than the bus driver who did or his friend who did not get infected?

Need I say more?

There are many dispassionate people who say we need and have a societal obligation to learn about the durability of the vaccine’s effectiveness. My colleagues at the CoVPN (COVID-19 Prevention Network) have, in fact, developed a proposal that would answer this quite effectively by vaccinating the placebo recipients, keeping the trial blinded, and following participants for signs of COVID-19 disease for the subsequent 18 months.

In this scenario, the people who got vaccine in the first place would get their blood drawn and be randomized to placebo injection. And those who initially got placebo would get their blood drawn and be injected with vaccine.

Let’s say we start in early January with the first dose, by the end of January after the second dose has been administered, everyone on the trial(s) would be vaccinated. Some could have been vaccinated last July 2020 at the start of the trials; some in January 2021.

By running the trial this way, we will be able to see the changes in durability in that six-month time difference, but everyone in the trials would then be vaccinated and therefore protected.

My colleagues and I feel this is best done blinded, but that is perhaps a lesser issue. The key point is that receipt of the vaccine is intended for all who originally signed up for the trials. Hopefully, most participants will want to continue with the study, and help answer this longer-term issue and continue to go to the clinic for COVID-19 testing and follow-up when they are ill.

With this proposed way forward, we can continue to learn about the efficacy and durability of the vaccine with the placebo group being vaccinated. It is medically difficult to justify keeping people on placebo when we don’t have absolute markers of risk — when we see that even some people ages 15 to 55 have been shown to experience severe disease, when we see increased hospitalization and death but have no clear marker of risk that can guide us as to who is at risk and who is not.

Keeping the vaccine from the very people who got us this far by participating in the trial, and who could benefit from it, is in my view, untenable. I, and almost all of my colleagues I surveyed who conducted these trials, honestly feel it is just not right.

Lastly, some people might argue that by vaccinating those in the placebo group, we would be taking vaccine away from others who are more deserving or who might have a higher risk. This is not the case. Vaccine vials labeled for research purposes are permanently labeled as such and are not those allocated to the general population.

If we’re going to adhere to the determinants of social justice; if we’re going to advocate for the underserved; if we’re going to declare the importance of altruism and act with principles of fairness, then we must treat all of the placebo recipients equally.

They themselves have become their own Band of Brothers…and Sisters, and we must honor their service to us all. 

Dr. Larry Corey is an internationally renowned expert in virology, immunology, and vaccine development and a leader of the COVID-19 Prevention Network (CoVPN), which was formed by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the U.S. National Institutes of Health to respond to the global pandemic. He is a Professor in the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, past President and Director of Fred Hutch, and a Professor of Medicine and Virology at University of Washington.

7
Dec
2020

This COVID-19 Long Hauler is Still Trying to Recover

E. Blair Clark-Schoeb, SVP of communications, Aruvant Sciences (Photo credit: Fisk Foto)

Our daughter celebrated her 14th birthday on Mar. 14. It’s an event none of us will forget.

Our family invited a few of her friends to join us for dinner in New York City to celebrate.

Scary headlines about the COVID-19 outbreak in New York were everywhere in the days leading up to her birthday. We had to stop and think. We debated whether to cancel this gathering. But we decided to move forward since we were just going to be with a small group.

Five days later, we came down with the Coronavirus. My husband Scott felt exhausted. I had a headache. When I felt a weird sensation of shortness of breath, like I had never felt before, I knew we needed to be tested.

Scott got tested on a Monday. A day later, we all knew. My mother and father, 77 and 84, respectively, were staying with us at our home in Summit, NJ. They immediately jumped in a car to go back to their house in Delaware. Thankfully, neither of them developed any symptoms.

For the next two weeks, my husband and I essentially stayed in bed. It was a struggle to stand up and walk to the bathroom. Our kids, staying downstairs or somewhere at arm’s length in the house, brought us food and plenty of liquids. They would leave food for us and walk back downstairs.

We felt terrible. The symptoms were typical — headache, fever, body aches, sore throat, GI issues. Although we had shortness of breath, we never needed to go on supplemental oxygen or felt so sick we needed to go to the hospital. We had what doctors call a “mild” case.

After two weeks, we started to feel a bit better. Around three weeks out, Scott was on the road back to normal. (Although he says he is not the same as before, he now is able to run over five miles these days).

By mid-April, I felt like I was recovering as well. Then, by Week 5, I started going backwards. I got tested again. Sure enough, it was positive.

Over the next month or so, I continued to feel OK. Not terrible, not great. Looking on the bright side, we decided to get out of the house. In May, we wanted to go see my parents in Delaware. The stay-at-home orders had lifted by then, and the first wave of cases in the pandemic appeared to be subsiding. We all got tested, and — good news! — we all tested negative.

We were ready to put our COVID-19 experience behind us.

The summer months were a roller coaster. One day I took my daughter to an outdoor lacrosse event. A fever came over me. At the event check-in table, they checked my temperature, and asked me the standard questions designed to prevent spread of the virus. I told the young lady that I still had occasional fevers even though I recently tested negative.

I managed to sit in the shade to cool down from the original 101 degrees Fahrenheit I had shown at check-in.  (That, by the way, was the highest fever I have ever recorded, even when I was actively shedding detectable levels of the virus). They allowed me to stay to watch, from a distance. It was a hot day, and somewhat miserable.

Word got around at the event that I had a fever. A particularly pushy mom called the head of the lacrosse club to complain. Next thing I knew, I was getting chased out of the event. 

The confusion about this virus makes people nutty. I sat in the parking lot, with tears rolling down my face. The proverbial scarlet letter, in my case a “C” on my chest, was humiliating. It was also upsetting that I still felt like crap months after I was first infected.

Like every other long hauler, I can paint the picture of what I was like before I got this lovely virus. I was a working mother of four who exercised almost every day. I alternated cardio and yoga days. You can check my Peloton app and see that I was active. I was a college athlete, playing squash at Harvard University. Staying fit and healthy is an important part of who I am.

Since being infected, I have attempted to exercise a few times. Most days, I feel like an elephant is sitting on me.

What I find particularly frustrating is the lack of understanding. One day, about four months into our COVID experience, my husband and I were out for a walk. (Essentially, he was dragging me outside to try and get me some exercise.) I remember it was a beautiful day that normally I would have relished being outside, but I really just wanted to go back to bed. We ran into a family practice doc in our neighborhood. Scott was telling her how I still have symptoms.

“It’s probably something else,” she said dismissively.

Other people, who aren’t physicians, freely offer their own speculative diagnoses. “Oh, maybe you have Lyme disease,” — I’ve heard that more than once.

The worst of these baseless conjectures came during a recent trip to an urgent care facility. I was there having my son tested after he had been exposed. I overheard the nurse telling the doctor that I am one of those “long haulers.”

The doctor replied, “This is today’s version of fibromyalgia.”

The condescending tone, and the implication that this illness was all just my overactive imagination, was beyond annoying. The inherent sexism and insensitivity that provider showed still burns me today. 

I now feel like I can relate to what it must feel like for individuals who suffer from a rare disease with no cure. Everyone has an opinion and people aren’t sure how to interact with you.

I do not want pity from anyone. I hate being asked how I am feeling. Because it never changes, and my answer is always the same. At this point, I do not want to talk about it. But if we do talk about it, I certainly do not want to hear people’s uninformed theories on how maybe I have Lyme disease or something else. 

I want to find something to help me recover, and I’d be happy, as a member of the biopharma community, to participate in some way to help advance scientific understanding of what’s going on with COVID-19 long haulers.

Recently, I had a visit with the University Pennsylvania Post-COVID-19 Care Center. We tried a round of steroids. That did nothing. They had me wear a cardiac halter for two weeks. I am waiting on the results. The one thing the team at Penn says appears to make a difference is physical therapy. So I’m giving that a try. At the same time, I am exploring Eastern medicine. I have done acupuncture. They prescribed me some herbs that made my heart race.  I am open to anything. 

The latest vaccine developments from Pfizer and Moderna thrill me. Some people see those results and imagine a return to normal, which in their mind means eating out once again.

I am just hopeful that the vaccine will help me feel even a little bit more like my former self. I do not want to feel like an old lady whose hips hurt, who can’t sleep through the night because of leg pain, who has shortness of breath.

I want to feel young again — like the 46-year-old that I was just nine months ago. A day without a headache would be nice, especially a day without the kinds of headaches that make me jump at loud noises or that knock me out in pain.

Often, I have heard people talk about just wanting to have the virus so they can get it out of the way and build up their immunity.

I have also heard how this is like the flu. I have never had a flu that has lasted for nine months. I suggest trying to avoid it and get vaccinated as soon as possible. My husband has antibodies and has even donated plasma. I can’t do that, because I don’t appear to have any antibodies. I am hopeful the vaccine will help me produce antibodies so I can feel better.

I have asked if I qualify for any of the current available treatments, and the answer is always no. We joke that we are going to do our own experiment and my husband will donate his plasma to me.

It would be so nice to get some clarity — a clear and confident bill of health that would allow me to plan for the future with confidence.

So much of this experience is about dealing with endless uncertainty and surprise.

Remember my daughter’s fateful 14th birthday dinner on Mar. 14? Turns out that wasn’t the exposure event we all thought it was. After a recent visit to a local furniture store, I discovered that in all likelihood, I did not even contract the virus at a restaurant in New York after all. The furniture store owner shared that she had been infected five days prior to when we had seen her in early March.

“It’s fine,” I told her, trying to coolly absorb what she had just said. “It’s been a mild case…” 

 

E. Blair Clark-Schoeb is the senior vice president of communications at Aruvant Sciences a company developing gene therapies for rare diseases. She is a founding member of the Society of Healthcare Innovation. Twitter: @EBCS22 

3
Dec
2020

AZ’s Muddy Result, Regeneron Cocktail OK’d, and Biogen, Sage Bet Big on Depression

Luke Timmerman, founder & editor, Timmerman Report

Take two weeks between Frontpoints columns, and a lot of stuff happens.

On Monday Nov. 23, AstraZeneca presented a muddy picture from its Phase III clinical trial with a COVID-19 vaccine developed on adenovirus technology with Oxford University. It’s either delivering 90 percent efficacy or 62 percent efficacy, depending on the dose. So it’s either great or good, but we’re not entirely sure.

Importantly, it costs less than $3 per dose and it easy to manufacture at global scale. So there’s that. AZ might have to run a new trial to get a clear answer on safety and efficacy, and that will take time, and maybe be hard to conduct with actual approved vaccines on the market.

Even though AstraZeneca has done many things this year to undermine public trust in itself (no more private CEO calls to JPMorgan clients, and more transparency on adverse events, please), this generally effective third vaccine in line is still a positive development.

One week after AstraZeneca’s muddy but directionally positive announcement, Moderna released its extraordinary full results from its 30,000-volunteer Phase III trial with its COVID-19 vaccine candidate. A vaccine that’s 95 percent effective at preventing COVID-19, and that protected everyone from severe disease. Hot damn. That’s a home run.

Then there’s Pfizer. Like Moderna, they have lightning in a bottle — an awesomely 95 percent efficacious vaccine in their hands, thanks to years of innovative work by BioNtech. But it turns out Pfizer can only ship half of the 100 million doses they expected to be able to ship by the end of the year, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Messenger RNA, amazing technology that it is, has quite obviously never been manufactured at global scale before. We knew this, and should expect more hiccups in manufacturing and supply. When this happens, it’s not the end of the world.

Pfizer, I’m sure, will get this fixed and deliver the goods. The whole world is watching and counting on it. A manufacturing supply issue, even with intricate lipid nanoparticles at global scale, is challenging, but solvable. The hard part is figuring out whether you have a good vaccine at all. We do know that for Pfizer and Moderna.

The Emergency Use Authorization applications are on file with the FDA. The FDA vaccine advisory committee will consider Pfizer’s application on Dec. 10 and Moderna’s on Dec. 17.

Priorities are being set on who should get the vaccines first, and who will have to wait until supply can meet demand. See Larry Corey’s excellent summary of the vaccine scarcity challenge to come.

We have struggled with clear scientific communication about the pandemic this year — but this distribution plan is an opportunity to make that right. The stakes are as high as it gets now, when people are getting ready to get in line.

The story now is about doing everything possible to save lives through the next few months.

Most public health officials expect another surge of cases in weeks ahead, after a Thanksgiving weekend in which many Americans ignored advice and traveled to visit family.

The vaccines are on the way. Therapies that make a difference are here (Gilead, Regeneron, Lilly). Biotech has undoubtedly risen to the occasion.

But dark, dark days lay ahead. The death toll could exceed 450,000 by the end of February, according to the CDC director. We’ll all be wearing masks and physical distancing for many months into 2021, until we can get a critical mass of people vaccinated. Our country, suffering from a breakdown of trust in our fellow countrymen, is going to struggle to overcome the vaccine hesitancy that’s sadly become so common.

This weekend, I’m going to keep fingers crossed for Johnson & Johnson to nail its Phase III with a single-shot adenoviral vaccine. This one has been flying below the radar, but could provide a cheap, easy to manufacture, easy to distribute, effective vaccine option.

We need all the help we can get.

Biopharma, this is the time to show what it’s all about.

Our Shared Humanity
  • A Crisis Reveals What is In Our Hearts. NYT. Nov. 26. (Pope Francis)
  • What If We Had People’s Trust? Nov. 30. (Susannah Fox)
  • The Weather Outside is Frightful. Timmerman Report. Nov. 30. (Lisa Suennen)
  • This Pandemic Must Be Seen. Wired. Nov. 20. (Roxanne Khamsi)
Science of SARS-CoV-2
Treatments
Public Health
  • White House Coronavirus Task Force Warns States of Dire Situation, Compromising Patient Care. The Hill. Dec. 2. (Peter Sullivan)
  • CDC Shortens Recommended COVID-19 Quarantine Time to 7 to 10 Days, Down from 14 Days, to Encourage Greater Compliance. WSJ. Dec. 2. (Betsy McKay and Brianna Abbott)
  • Supporting US Public Health Experts. Nature Biotechnology. Nov. 25. (Ron Cohen and other leaders of BIO)
Vaccines
  • Absolutely Remarkable. No One Who Got Moderna’s Vaccine in Trial Developed Severe COVID. Science. Nov. 30. (Jon Cohen)
  • Public Needs to Prep for Vaccine Side Effects. Science. Nov. 27. (Meredith Wadman)
  • Vaccine Scarcity: Buckle Up for Debate. Timmerman Report. Dec. 1. (Larry Corey)
  • Don’t Hesitate in Getting a COVID-19 Vaccine. Forbes. Dec. 3. (John LaMattina)
  • Vaccines Don’t Protect People. Vaccination Does. The Bulwark. Dec. 3. (David Shaywitz)
  • Placebo-Controlled Trials of COVID-19 Vaccines. Why We Still Need Them. Dec. 2. NEJM. (WHO Ad Hoc Expert Group on the Next Steps for Covid-19 Vaccine Evaluation)
  • Many Trial Volunteers Got Placebo Vaccines. Do They Now Deserve the Real Ones? NYT. Dec. 2. (Carl Zimmer and Noah Weiland)
  • Find Your Place in the Vaccine Line. NYT. Dec. 3. (Stuart Thompson) *FYI–I’m No. 268,000,000 or so in the US, and No. 1,600,000 in King County, Washington. In other words, near the end.
  • Moncef Slaoui Says US Expects 100 Million Vaccinated by the End of February. Dec. 2. (Agence-France Press)
  • Novavax Says 2 out of the 3 Late-Stage COVID-19 Vaccine Studies Are Fully Enrolled, with 20,000 People Dosed To Date. Nov. 30. (Novavax statement)
Science (Non-COVID related)
Science Features
  • For Covid Long-Haulers, a Little-Known Diagnosis Offers Possible Treatments—and New Challenges. WSJ. Nov. 30. (Sumathi Reddy)
  • The Pandemic Heroes (in China) Who Gave Us the Gift of Time and Information. Nov. 30. (Zeynep Tufekci)
  • The Remarkable Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine. NYT. Nov. 21. (Sharon LaFraniere et al)
  • COVID Combat Fatigue. “I Would Come Home With Tears in My Eyes.” NYT. Nov. 25. (Katherine Wu)
  • Medicare and Medicaid Badly Need Attention. NYT. Dec. 1. (Peter Bach)
  • A Coronavirus Vaccine in 1 Year? Impossible. Meet Moncef Slaoui. USA Today. Dec. 1. (Karen Weintraub)
Corrections, Brother

It’s one thing to be wrong. Happens to everyone. But then there’s dead wrong. John Ioannidis of Stanford University, in my view, is one of the people who fell into that unfortunate latter camp, in a very public way. He argued on Mar. 17 in STAT that public health authorities didn’t have enough data on COVID-19 to order the drastic non-pharmaceutical interventions of that time. Apparently, he missed a lot of the memos on how to respond to deadly pandemic viruses that spread at exponential speed (act fast, act bold, don’t wait for perfect data). Now, along comes Scientific American with a retrospective about the controversy. It only made things messier. See this doozy of an Editor’s Note.

Deals

Biogen agreed to pay Cambridge, Mass.-based Sage Therapeutics $1.525 billion upfront as part of a deal to co-develop and co-commercialize zuranolone for major depressive disorder and postpartum depression, as well as SAGE-324 for essential tremor. The companies will split expenses and profits / losses 50-50 in the US. Biogen bought shares in Sage at $104.14 a share – a 40 percent premium over the company’s prior 30-day trading average.

Merck & Co. divested its equity stake in Moderna, after seeing the stock surge 7-fold this year. Merck purchased a $50 million equity stake in the mRNA vaccine and therapeutics developer in January 2015.

Merck agreed to acquire Oncoimmune for $425 million upfront in cash. OncoImmune recently announced an interim analysis of a Phase 3 study with its CD24Fc directed treatment for patients with severe and critical COVID-19. Merck said that patients in the study had a 60 percent higher probability of improvement in clinical status. Details to come in a peer-reviewed medical journal.

Penn Medicine, home of gene therapy pioneer James Wilson, agreed to collaborate with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals on an AAV viral-vector based approach to prevention of COVID-19. The gene therapy approach quite obviously doesn’t scale like a dirt-cheap vaccine, but scientists suspect it will provide rapid onset of antibody production, and lasting protection – features that might be useful for immunocompromised groups of patients and healthcare workers.

Janssen Pharmaceuticals acquired the rights to an experimental gene therapy for severe age-related macular degeneration from Hemera Biosciences. Terms weren’t disclosed.

AbbVie agreed to pay $100 million upfront to South San Francisco-based Frontier Medicines as part of a collaboration to make small molecules against E3 ligases and other difficult targets for cancer and autoimmune disease.

Germany-based Merck KGaA agreed to pay $30 million upfront to New York-based Artios Pharma through a deal to work on precision cancer drugs focused on DNA damage repair mechanisms.

Palo Alto, Calif.-based Eiger Biopharmaceuticals sold a Priority Review Voucher to AbbVie for a $95 million lump sum payment. Eiger will split the proceeds 50-50 with The Progeria Research Foundation.

Rockville, MD-based Macrogenics collected a $25 million milestone payment from Incyte for its continuing collaborative work on an anti-PD-1 antibody. Separately, Macrogenics said it formed a partnership with Eversana to commercialize margetuximab, its Fc-optimized HER-2 directed antibody for cancer. The FDA deadline to complete its review of the drug candidate is coming up on Dec. 18.

South San Francisco-based Sunesis Pharmaceuticals agreed to merge with San Diego-based Viracta Therapeutics. The merged company will have $120 million in cash to work on viral-based cancers, including its lead program for Epstein-Barr virus-positive lymphomas.

Cambridge, Mass.-based Agios Pharmaceuticals introduced a program called Anemia ID, in which people suspected of having hereditary anemias can get genetic testing at no cost. This sort of program makes sense, because this is America, where most people live in fear of being gouged by the healthcare system. As a result, many people are thought to be suffering from undiagnosed hereditary anemias. Agios has reason to do rigorous outreach to this patient community (see below).

New York-based Schrodinger, the computational drug discovery company, struck a multi-target partnership with Bristol-Myers Squibb. Schrodinger is getting $55 million upfront. (See my in-depth interview with Schrodinger CEO Ramy Farid, Jan. 2019.)

Data That Mattered

Cambridge, Mass.-based Agios Pharmaceuticals met the primary endpoint in a pivotal study of mitapivat in adults with pyruvate kinase deficiency, a rare form of hereditary anemia, who are not regularly transfused. Regulatory filings are on deck for the US and EU in 2021.

New York-based Ovid Therapeutics failed in a Phase III clinical trial of its drug candidate for Angelman Syndrome. CEO Jeremy Levin didn’t try to sugarcoat or spin the results, and demonstrated some class on a hard day for the company. I have no doubt his team will learn and move on in a productive way.

Financings

San Diego and Boston-based Resilience, a company aiming to create an more advanced biologics manufacturing ecosystem in North America, came out of stealth mode with $800 million in committed capital. ARCH Venture Partners managing director Bob Nelsen is the founder and chairman, and ARCH co-led the $750 million Series B investment round with 8VC. GV and NEA also participated.

Medfield, Mass.-based Kinaset Therapeutics raised $40 million in a Series A financing to develop an inhalable pan-JAK inhibitor for severe asthma. 5AM Ventures and Atlas Venture co-led. (Timmerman Report coverage)

Burlingame, Calif.-based Genesis Therapeutics raised $52 million in a Series A financing to further develop its AI platform for predicting the potency and bioavailability of drug candidates. Rock Springs Capital led. (Timmerman Report coverage).

Burlingame, Calif.-based Tallac Therapeutics, a company leveraging the innate and adaptive immune system against cancer, raised $62 million in a Series A. VenBio, Morningside Venture, Lightstone Ventures, Matrix Partners China, and MRL Ventures Fund participated.

San Francisco-based Spotlight Therapeutics, a company developing non-viral gene editing therapeutics for direct in vivo editing of target genes, raised $30 million in a Series A financing. GV led.

Seattle and Vancouver, BC-based Achieve Life Sciences raised $15 million in an IPO to develop cytisinicline for smoking cessation and nicotine addiction.

Personnel File

Boston-based Karuna Therapeutics named David Wheadon to its board of directors, replacing Ed Harrigan. Wheadon, a psychiatrist and former AstraZeneca executive, also serves on Karuna’s scientific advisory board.  

France-based Transgene, a viral immunotherapy cancer drug developer, named Hedi Ben Brahim as chairman and CEO. He replaces Philippe Archinard.

Chrissy Farr, health-tech reporter for CNBC in the San Francisco Bay Area, left to join OMERS Ventures as a principal, focused on health-tech investments. (See her Personal News column).

Arvin Yang joined Cambridge, Mass.-based Mersana Therapeutics as chief medical officer.

Shanghai-based Gannex, a unit of Ascletis Pharma dedicated to developing drugs for NASH, hired Melissa Palmer as chief medical officer. A hepatologist by training, Palmer was previously head of liver disease clinical development at Takeda Pharmaceuticals.

ASCO named a new chief medical officer. It’s Julie Gralow, professor of medical oncology and director of breast medical oncology at the University of Washington, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, and the Seattle Cancer Care Alliance.

Cambridge, Mass.-based Vedanta Biosciences, the developer of microbiome-based therapies, named Troy Ignelzi to its board of directors. He’s the chief financial officer of Karuna Therapeutics.

Ann Arbor, Mich.-based Penrose Therapeutics, a cancer drug developer, named Mark de Souza as CEO.

Scott Atlas resigned from his role advising the White House on coronavirus response.

Regulatory Action

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals won an Emergency Use Authorization from the FDA for its double-antibody cocktail, casirivimab and imdevimab, for mild to moderate COVID-19 in patients ages 12 and up (weighing at least 88 pounds). It’s not for patients who are hospitalized or on oxygen. Now the pressure is on to see how far and wide Regeneron can manufacture and distribute this important medicine, which in all likelihood will save a lot of lives. See Meg Tirrell’s Tweet on the supply timelines.

New York-based yMabs won FDA clearance to start selling naxitamab-gqgk (Danyelza) for neuroblastoma in kids age 1 and older. It’s given in combo with GM-CSF. The new drug, first developed at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, is an antibody that targets ganglioside GD2.

Tarrytown, NY-based Regeneron Pharmaceuticals won EU clearance for dupilumab (Dupixent), as a treatment for eczema (atopic dermatitis) in children ages 6-11. Nearly three-fourths of kids with this condition saw a 75 percent or greater improvement in their disease extent and severity, compared with 26 percent who did that well on placebo in a pivotal study. As a coincidence, a friend asked me recently about new treatments for two kids with this condition. I was happy to be the bearer of good news, encouraging him to look into the data, and ask his kids’ doctor about it.

Palo Alto, Calif.-based Eiger Biopharmaceuticals won FDA approval for lonafarnib (Zokinvy) as a treatment for Hutchinson-Gilford Progeria Syndrome (HGPS or Progeria) and processing-deficient Progeroid Laminopathies (PL). These are ultra-rare diseases in which young kids are struck with premature aging.

Boston-based Rhythm Pharmaceuticals won FDA approval for setmelanotide (Imcivree) to treat chronic weight management in patients with certain genetic abnormalities confirmed by genetic testing.

Genentech won FDA approval for baloxavir marboxil (Xofluza) as a one-time treatment for influenza in people who have been exposed to an infected person. The approval is for patients ages 12 and up.

New York-based Kantaro Biosciences won FDA Emergency Use Authorization for an antibody test for COVID-19 that provides a quantitative readout on SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies.

AI for Predicting Protein Folding

This was a big deal for AI in drug discovery. Read some solid summaries of the results below.

  • Artificial intelligence solution to a 50-year-old science challenge could ‘revolutionize’ medical research. Nov. 30. (CASP14 Statement on London-based DeepMind’s AI protein folding achievement).
  • The Game Has Changed. AI Triumphs at Solving Protein Structures. Science. Nov. 30. (Robert Service)
  • DeepMind’s Protein Folding AI Has Solved a 50-Year Old Grand Challenge of Biology. Tech Review. Nov. 30. (Will Douglas Heaven)
  • Protein Folding, 2020. In the Pipeline. Nov. 30. (Derek Lowe)
Tweetworthy

Nobel laureate Frances Arnold of Caltech was impressed with the AlphaFold achievement, using AI to predict protein folding.  But yes, there’s more.

Science Communication (What Not to Do)

 

1
Dec
2020

Vaccine Scarcity: Buckle Up for Debate

Larry Corey, MD

The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are likely to secure Emergency Use Authorizations (EUAs) from the FDA by Christmas.

These are amazing gifts of science. They also arrive with high expectations from a weary public, especially since the clinical trials of these mRNA vaccines indicate near-complete protection from severe disease.

These first two vaccines arrive at the most tumultuous time yet in the pandemic. We are seeing a surge of people being newly diagnosed with COVID-19 across the country. More than 90,000 people are now hospitalized, and our healthcare capacity is being stretched to the limits. The death rate, after months of decline, is now heading back up. The upheaval in our daily lives has been with us for nine solid months. This terrible set of circumstances should help push back against the vaccine hesitancy we have heard about from public opinion polls.

The desire for protection from this sinister virus ought to prevail, and lead to a successful national vaccination campaign in the months ahead.

The demand for a vaccine is clear. Unfortunately, however, the demand for these vaccines will markedly outstrip their supply, at least for the next four to five months. That seems like an eternity, especially with the rate of community spread we are now seeing. Vaccine scarcity will be in the news for the next several months until one or two other types of vaccines — beyond the initial batch of mRNA vaccines — can meet the safety and efficacy requirements for an EUA distribution and become widely available.

How did we get into this predicament — where science came up with a couple of exceptional vaccines, but we can’t deliver them to everyone?

The pace of vaccine development has been unbelievably quick; quicker than anyone ever expected. This remarkable scientific accomplishment has outstripped the existing manufacturing supply chain. The conceptual framework of a victory against the virus exists, but in order to proclaim victory, we need mass vaccine manufacturing distribution and uptake.

Making and distributing vaccines is a complex process. There are many steps, and each step requires detailed quality control measures to ensure that each and every vial contains the right dose and right substance. To think of it in a more personalized way, what goes into every arm — including yours and mine — needs to meet manufacturing standards. That is not an easy task and one that takes specialized facilities and highly trained personnel, more than currently exist.

It’s especially difficult when you recognize that mRNA vaccines are an altogether new type of platform for vaccine development. Never before have they been manufactured at the scale of millions — even billions — of doses.

When we look at the number of doses being made versus what we need, it’s a daunting thought. Between Pfizer and Moderna, we expect only 20 million doses to be available in December; 30 to 40 million in January and February; and 60 million per month in March and April. Even if we reach 200 million doses, that’s only 100 million people vaccinated at best — less than half the U.S. adult population.

As I’ll describe below, these doses may not even cover the populations we feel most need the vaccine.

So, who’s in line for this scarce resource and who decides who gets vaccinated first? We knew that vaccine scarcity would be inevitable since the beginning of the Operation Warp Speed (OWS) program. Independent groups and other experts have been evaluating all along how to define and develop an equitable national vaccine access strategy.

The National Academy of Medicine, or NAM, the country’s premier independent group of scientists and medical policy makers, was commissioned by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and OWS to evaluate this issue.

NAM divided access to effective vaccines into four categories and estimated the number of people in each of these categories. As shown in the first phase (1A and 1B), they prioritized health care workers and the elderly in high-density communities, such as nursing homes, followed by the elderly that have comorbidities like autoimmune disease or diabetes, which raise their risk of severe COVID-19. The NAM panel classified essential workers as the second group.

In both phases of distribution, the panel emphasized that economically disadvantaged communities must be given equal access in all situations.

The second group of experts enlisted was the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). That’s the CDC’s arm that makes recommendations for public health authorities around the country. The ACIP is the committee that has defined populations recommended for vaccination for over 50 years. Its advice is linked to public health–funded programs and defines insurance coverage for vaccines.

This group has been discussing who ought to get the COVID-19 vaccines first for many weeks in open meetings. It has, in its first rendition noted below, suggested that essential workers and first responders and medical personnel be in the first group.

Essential workers comprise group 1B, for example grocery store workers and meat packers. The third priority group (1C) is the elderly and those people with comorbidities. These 3 groups of people alone comprise well over 150 million people.

That all adds up to a lot of vulnerable people – more than we can vaccinate right away. Estimates are we’ll have enough vaccine supply for about 90 million people by April 2021.

How does one handle this scarcity when a case for vaccination exists for a very large segment of our adult population?

ACIP Proposal

How does one choose between a healthy frontline essential worker with no comorbidities — someone with a lower risk of death but a higher chance of becoming exposed and infecting others — than an elderly person with comorbidities who has a much higher risk of death but could perhaps self-protect more by limiting exposure?

Is there a right answer to who gets vaccinated first or do we have to understand and practice principles of equity and patience until we have enough vaccine for everyone?

Both groups — the National Academy of Medicine and the ACIP — are advisory. They make recommendations to the public and executive branches of state governments. We have national-guidelines, but we don’t have a nationally controlled distribution plan.

Each state will make its own choice about allocation. We will see differences in distribution by locale. Understanding and communicating these differences to the public will be challenging. Some will call it confusing.

I’m sure there will be some disagreement, some of it loud and angry, about who should get the vaccine when.

One principle should be upheld; we should use every available vial. Nothing should get wasted.

The only real solution to overcome vaccine scarcity is, of course, to remove scarcity, which means that the remaining vaccines need to be made available. So, the AstraZeneca vaccine that you’ve heard about, which reports about 70% effectiveness; the single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine still being tested in a blinded pivotal clinical trial and others, will need to pass scientific muster and then be made widely available as well.

We are hopeful that answers on how these vaccines perform in the U.S. will be known by late January 2021 — less than two months from today.

For the time being, we’re going to have to get used to this issue of vaccine scarcity. However difficult it may be, we will have to be patient, and conscientious of broader societal needs, at least until more manufacturing capacity for the mRNA vaccines exists, or more likely, other types of vaccines become available for all of us. 

Dr. Larry Corey is an internationally renowned expert in virology, immunology, and vaccine development and a leader of the COVID-19 Prevention Network (CoVPN), which was formed by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the U.S. National Institutes of Health to respond to the global pandemic. He is a Professor of Medicine and Virology at University of Washington and a Professor in the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division and past President and Director of Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.

1
Dec
2020

COVID-19 Drives New Push for CRISPR-Based Home Diagnostics

Frank Vinluan, correspondent, Timmerman Report

Though polymerase chain reaction, PCR, is regarded as the gold standard in molecular diagnostics, the COVID-19 pandemic has taken off some of the shine.

Under normal circumstances, samples processed in commercial diagnostic labs that run standard PCR machines can take hours to yield results. In a pandemic, with a surge in demand for tests, turnaround times are creeping upward and creating a shortage of PCR supplies.

Sometimes the results can take so long to come back that the test is rendered effectively meaningless.

CRISPR is among the technologies increasingly seen as a viable diagnostic alternative.

Better known for research underway in experimental gene-editing therapies, CRISPR’s ability to target and cut nucleic acids can also be used to precisely detect disease in biological samples.

Cambridge, Mass.-based Sherlock Biosciences was awarded the first emergency use authorization (EUA) for a CRISPR-based COVID-19 lab test. CEO Rahul Dhanda says the technology produces results that are as accurate as PCR, but that arrive far more quickly – sometimes in minutes.

Now Sherlock and other companies are trying to take CRISPR’s diagnostic capabilities beyond the controlled environment of commercial labs, and into the place where many people are stuck.

Rahul Dhanda, co-founder and CEO, Sherlock Biosciences

“I think of this as an evolution toward a molecular diagnostic that can be done at home,” Dhanda said.

Both PCR and CRISPR diagnostics seek out a tiny amount of genetic material and make it detectable for disease diagnosis, but they accomplish that in different ways. PCR, a decades-old technique, works only on DNA. In order to detect SARS-CoV-2, the virus’s RNA must be reverse transcribed to DNA. That DNA is then amplified – turned into millions of detectable copies. In addition to taking time, some steps of the process must be done at precise temperatures, a task that’s automated by an instrument.

In both therapeutic and diagnostic applications, CRISPR molecules find nucleic acids under the guidance of RNA that have been programmed to match a target genetic sequence. The CRISPR molecule includes a Cas enzyme that cuts nucleic acids. The most commonly used enzyme in therapeutic applications is Cas9. In recent years, scientists have discovered other Cas enzymes that are thought to be better suited for diagnostics. Cas12 cuts DNA while Cas13 cuts RNA, for instance.

Like PCR, a CRISPR diagnostic needs to reverse transcribe viral RNA to DNA, which is then amplified. But a CRISPR diagnostic does its work in fewer steps and at room temperature, Dhanda said. When a CRISPR molecule encounters its target, the Cas enzyme is activated to start cutting the nucleic acid.

But the cutting doesn’t stop there. Once activated, these enzymes also cut loose a reporting molecule that’s added to the sample. The signal from this reporter molecule is what lab equipment can read as a positive sign of the disease. Sherlock’s CRISPR diagnostic yields results in about an hour, compared with six hours for standard PCR, Dhanda says. The new technology is adaptable, and can be used to develop assays for any disease with a DNA or RNA signature, he adds.

The market appetite for new types of diagnostic tests has never been greater. Since the World Health Organization’s pandemic declaration in March, the FDA has granted emergency authorizations to nearly 200 molecular diagnostic products.

Diagnostic development typically surges in response to disease outbreaks, said Gerald Kost, emeritus professor of pathology and laboratory medicine at the University of California, Davis. The Ebola outbreak six years ago sparked a similar, but smaller wave of research. Though the disease’s spread in West Africa showed the need for more point-of-care diagnostics, the number of U.S cases was small. Consequently, companies did not see enough of a market to develop tests in anticipation of a future pandemic, Kost said.

That’s not to say there haven’t been advances spurred by the 2014 Ebola outbreak.

PCR testing has already moved beyond labs to patient settings. As an example, Kost points to the cobas Liat, a Roche Diagnostics instrument that was granted FDA clearance in 2014 for diagnosing streptococcus A. Roche has since added other diseases to the instrument’s testing menu, including an EUA in September for COVID-19 and influenza. Hospitals that had previously purchased the devices can also run COVID-19 tests on them.

Consumers clearly aren’t going to spend $16,000 to buy a Liat, Kost said. That creates an opening in the market for a high-accuracy / high-speed / low-cost alternative.

Kost added that while CRISPR’s potential for diagnostics has been discussed for years, the challenge for the technology in point-of-care applications is designing a device that can conduct these tests outside of a lab.

The goal for developers of home-based CRISPR diagnostics is a test that is as affordable and accessible as pregnancy tests available in pharmacies. Many of these tests show their results on a paper strip whose color change indicates the presence of a protein.

San Francisco and Buenos Aires-based Caspr Biotech is taking a similar approach. It’s developing a small, portable CRISPR test for use in places were PCR testing is unavailable. In a March preprint, scientists from Caspr and the University of Buenos Aires described how the technology detected a genetic signal on a paper strip, which the authors said demonstrates that this system could be made into a portable test.

However, developing a CRISPR diagnostic is not as simple as overlaying CRISPR technology on a pregnancy test platform, said Janice Chen, co-founder and chief technology officer of South San Francisco-based Mammoth Biosciences. Such consumer tests aren’t molecular diagnostics, which require more complicated preparation of samples for analysis. The challenge for a CRISPR-based home testing kit is miniaturizing the capabilities of a molecular lab into a handheld device.

Janice Chen, co-founder and chief technology officer, Mammoth Biosciences

“It has to be simple enough for any user to run the test, but the accuracy has to match what one would expect in a lab molecular test, Chen said.

Mammoth, co-founded by UC Berkeley CRISPR pioneer Jennifer Doudna, is developing a handheld COVID diagnostic through a partnership with GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare. The companies aim to offer a disposable test capable of identifying viral RNA from a nasal swab sample in about 20 minutes.

In parallel, the startup is also developing a lab-based CRISPR test for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. That research  is supported by the National Institutes of Health’s RADx initiative, which aims to speed up the development and commercialization of new COVID-19 diagnostics. Chen said it’s too soon to say when the Mammoth/GSK home test could be ready for EUA consideration. In August, the FDA awarded Mammoth’s reagent kit emergency authorization for lab use.

Ann DeWitt, partner at The Engine, a venture capital firm spun out of MIT that invests in “tough tech,” said  at-home molecular diagnostics fit that definition. She said The Engine defines “tough tech” as transformative technology addressing the world’s biggest problems. A point-of-care CRISPR diagnostic would ease the testing burden of the current pandemic and give hospitals and labs another tool to prepare for the next one, said DeWitt, whose firm has invested in diagnostics startups but has no connections to any CRISPR companies.

She said that startups aiming to develop a CRISPR diagnostic for home use must design a product that doesn’t require expertise to perform the test and read the results.

“If you’re using equipment that isn’t readily available in a home, a centrifuge for example, a lot of that product development is going to have to be rethought,” DeWitt said.

So far, one at-home molecular diagnostic has received an EUA for COVID, and it’s not based on either PCR or CRISPR. The Lucira Health product tests for the genetic signs of the novel coronavirus by analyzing a sample from a nasal swab. The swab is swirled in a vial, which is then placed in the Lucira device. The instrument reverse transcribes viral RNA to DNA and employs a technique called loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) to amplify the genetic material from the virus. (The lab kits of Sherlock and Mammoth also use LAMP for amplification.)

Lucira’s diagnostic produces test results in about 30 minutes. Results are shown as a color change on an LED display. The test requires a prescription from a healthcare provider, which some critics have said will limit the sort of widespread adoption necessary to make at-home testing most useful.

Whether a CRISPR test can be engineered into an at-home test that can be self-ordered and self-administered is an open question. CRISPR’s next move closer to patients is more likely to be a product for health care settings.

Sherlock’s research includes a diagnostic that pairs its CRISPR technology with an FDA-cleared testing platform from Boston-based binx health. That COVID test would process a sample on a single-use cartridge that’s analyzed by a benchtop instrument. Dhanda said that this cartridge test could yield results in about 20 minutes. It does not yet have emergency authorization from the FDA.

Sherlock still aims to address the home market, but not with CRISPR — at least not yet. The company is developing yet another test that programs a synthetic gene to generate a signal in the presence of its target. Dhanda says this technology, dubbed INSPECTR, doesn’t require lab equipment, can be done at room temperature, and yields results just as sensitive as PCR. Those results would show up on a detection strip, similar to a home pregnancy test.

Sherlock, which has yet to publish data about its CRISPR or synthetic biology diagnostics, aims to have a COVID INSPECTR test ready to submit to the FDA for a potential EUA decision in the first half of 2021.

Kost, the UC Davis professor, said the most promising COVID diagnostics will be useful in a post-pandemic world. The 1918 flu pandemic petered out after four years but vaccinations could end COVID-19 in half that time, he said.

Gerald Kost

If vaccination campaigns succeed and demand for COVID-19 testing dries up, companies will have to find new markets for the technologies they’ve developed in this pressure-cooker of a year.

Kost suggested that a diagnostic company could strike up a contract with an airline that wants to test passengers before departures, or perhaps with businesses that require regular employee screening.

Even better would be further work to convert a single test into something that screens for multiple pathogens. Kost points to Sunnyvale, Calif.-based Cepheid, whose benchtop PCR system, GeneXpert, has been used for rapid diagnosis of infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and Ebola.

In October, GeneXpert was awarded FDA emergency authorization for a test that diagnoses COVID, influenza A and B, and respiratory syncytial virus from a single patient sample. Results for all four pathogens are ready in less than 40 minutes.

That test is particularly useful because people with those diseases often display similar symptoms, and it’s cumbersome, time-consuming and more expensive for healthcare providers or individuals to provide multiple samples to run through multiple tests.

“That’s the kind of change we need to see in technology – tech that is adaptable to multiplexing, that allows us to look not just at one disease but several,” Kost said.

30
Nov
2020

The Weather Outside is Frightful and That’s Just the Half of It

Lisa Suennen

I really miss waiters.

I was recently talking, via the mixed blessing of Zoom, with the very awesome members of a women’s group to which I belong.

Our full group of about 35 meets once a year. Normally, we do so in person, at a spa, where food is brought to us by actual waiters.

Remember waiters? Man, I miss waiters.

But despite talking via Zoom and definitely not in the company of waiters, the plan for this year was still the same as always: each of us in virtual attendance would get 15-20 minutes to talk about whatever we want. It’s wonderful.

You can solicit advice. You can ask for silence. You can open up about your deepest moments of loss and sadness or your small and large victories. You can brag about your family or complain about them. You can share your work challenges or talk about your excitement about opportunities ahead. And you can whine, bitch, moan and lament to your heart’s content and get unqualified and loving support from the best pit crew ever.

When it was my turn to pour my guts out, I tried to describe the silver linings of the current world order (or at least my slice of it). There are many, and I reminded myself of them this past Thanksgiving weekend. I have much for which to be thankful.

But I also ended up unloading on my friends about all of the things that Just. Totally. Suck.

Normally, I’m not one to unload a double-barreled shotgun of crap on other people. But I was struck by the tidal wave of positive reinforcement I received while wallowing in suckage, and particularly the sense that this suckativity is shared at a visceral level by so many who look like they have their acts totally together. It was kind of cathartic for me, and apparently for others in the group, too.

I left that Zoom call encouraged to write about it, because I realized these are shared experiences, not my own personal hell.

So lucky you, welcome to my “Life Sucks the Big One” blog post.

We all know the toll this pandemic has taken on our families, friends and selves. The number of deaths or terrible illnesses experienced is beyond words.

And yet, for those of us fortunate enough to have avoided the virus, there is tremendous guilt. Complaining too much about how we are feeling, mentally and emotionally, during this shitstorm of a year feels petty and wrong.  

You don’t have to look around long to see extreme suffering of others.

And yet, the seemingly small miseries of those of us with COVID survivor’s guilt do exist. They are real (if not spectacular — congrats if you get that joke).

The mental health of many is taking a toll and I’ll admit to being one of those doling out quarters at this particular toll bridge. I have definitely been down-beat more than usual. I can cry at the slightest thing. Sentimental toilet paper commercial? Here come the tears. I run out of ice cream, here come the water works. God help me if I read a story in the newspaper that reminds me how much crap is going on in the real world – it makes me try to burrow under the couch (so THAT’s where all the dog toys are).

The only upside is that I gave up makeup sometime in April and thus I am saving money on all the mascara that would otherwise now be streaming down my cheeks.

I have a constant sense of fear and paranoia about getting sick.  I’m annoyed that a few of my friends have exerted some peer pressure about getting together in ways that just don’t seem optimal under the COVID circumstances.

I feel bad saying No, but would feel stupid saying Yes. Few would mistake me for an introvert, yet I am doing my best impression of one and it is getting more and more natural. Sometimes I wonder if I’m turning into a hermit. That also sucks.

I miss traveling and seeing people. It is scary to think that the huge network I have built over a lifetime is somehow moving ahead without me. When I’m being sane, which occurs every other Thursday from 7:32 am to 7:36 am (now the best time to reach me) I realize that there is so little going on out there that my fear of being left behind is unlikely to translate in reality. Even so, it gnaws at me, driving me at moments into of a crazy kind of FOMO. For those who don’t use this acronym several times a day, Fear of Missing Out is an occupational hazard for venture capitalists and entrepreneurs in the best of times.

Turns out, I’m not the only one feeling the FOMO dialed up to 11. I was fascinated to learn that this is also at the top of the list of worries for so many of my women’s group friends. COVID stress and anxiety is apparently triggering an epidemic level of insecurity and low self-esteem that would be wholly unexpected among this crew of accomplished over-achievers.

One of the things I worry about (and worry about how I’m worrying about it) is how I have lost, at least for now, some of the silly but real ways I used to define myself in the world.

Those who know me even a little bit know how much I love shoes. Yet I haven’t bought a pair of shoes in about 8 months. This has to be some kind of personal record. I suspect that any economic woes being experienced by Manolo Blahnik and the Nordstrom shoe department are directly traceable to me and my absence.

Furthermore, I always ran around in the world with elaborately painted toenails. Again, hardly a life crisis to have naked toenails when so many people I know are truly suffering, but it was a mode of accessorizing that kicked off a lot of fun conversations and a means of self-expression that I have really enjoyed for well over a decade.

That’s actually the crux of this – the lack of access to things that “bring me joy,” as Marie Kondo would say. If a person is the sum total of their triumphs and tribulations (and toes), and there are few triumphs (because they are hard to achieve when locked up like Rapunzel after a big haircut), and too many tribulations – then you start to feel like a pale version of your former self. Certainly, it’s hard to feel like you’re at the top of your game.

And, speaking of games, up until March I also played squash 2-3 times a week for most of the last 16+ years; that is, alas, also gone for now. Not only does squash make for good aerobic exercise, it used to be the primary way I removed stress from my system. Smashing things repeatedly while swearing, it turns out, is excellent therapy.

My gym in Northern California is remarkably still open. They keep calling me to come back. Part of me wants to go back. But given that what I would do there is lock myself into a small, fully enclosed room with little circulating air and with another sweaty person expelling spit through aggressive swearing, I’m thinking…probably not such a great idea.

Alas, leisurely walks through the park just don’t cut it for my fitness routine. It turns out that if you stomp aggressively down the street while swearing, people stare and dial 911.

My coping skills, as a result of my sloth-like fitness routine, are less than stellar. On the plus side, my over-reaction time is dropping so fast I could win some sort of panic contest. Everything that goes wrong feels like a disaster. Spilling water from a glass could trigger an international incident.

Like everyone else in America trying to soothe rattled nerves, we got a puppy. The little critter is cute as can be and needs a ton of attention; so, naturally, any extra time available is time I spend feeling guilty about how little time I am spending with the cat. Look, I’m Jewish, so anxiety comes with the bloodline, but this is getting ridiculous.

So why am I telling you all this? It is not for sympathy. It is for connection and so we can all share a little self-validation.

The feelings of guilt, insecurity, isolation, anxiety, loss of self-expression – they seem to be universal constants right now. Most of us are feeling stressed, anxious, a little lonely, a little lost and very stir-crazy. The idea that we may have months or even another year of this to go is daunting. We have gone from talking about testing 103% of the time to talking about vaccination timelines morning, noon and night. Yes, there was a momentary election conversation interlude (thank God that’s over with), but otherwise it’s all COVID all the time.

For many people it’s really tough to share feelings, no matter what the circumstances. It is especially tough when those feelings seem shallow as compared to the true depths of despair that so many families have faced. But as one of my friends pointed out, misery doesn’t have to be a zero-sum game – we are all entitled to our feelings and fears and to having those validated. In fact, if we don’t let the feelings out, we are going to start seeing people spontaneously combust in the grocery store.

Some of us are self-medicating in ways that we normally never would. By the way, if you’re at the grocery store buying chocolate and can’t find any, it’s because I ate it all.

But seriously, alcohol and drug consumption is booming (Nielsen reported a 54 percent year over year increase in alcohol sales during the initial pandemic surge in mid-March). That is terrifying considering how that alcohol consumption had been steadily rising for 25 years, even before the pandemic. We really don’t know what damage we will all be left with psychologically, physically, and culturally after the pandemic passes.

So, again, it’s essential to find ways to express your feelings, to feel validated for having them and to know you are not alone. We may have a country that is quite divided, but bottom line, we are actually all in this together. Never has it been clearer that we are as connected as the bones in that old song – our knee bones are connected to our leg bones and so on. There is no getting around it.

So, here’s my request: ask a friend or acquaintance how they are doing and really hear them out. Listen to their litany of woe and do not judge. Validate. One person’s little problems are another person’s crisis. Your job is to empathize and support. Acknowledge. Be there. Be attentive. Err on the side of loving kindness. And when that is done, be kind to yourself and seek the reciprocity you deserve. We will get past this if we help each other through.

25
Nov
2020

I Used to Report on Clinical Trials, Now I’m In One; Here’s Why I Volunteered

Mike Huckman

I am not brave.

Once, I passed out after a routine blood draw for a diagnostic test. Ever since that first scary and embarrassing episode at a LabCorp location in Manhattan several years ago, the act of giving a blood sample, no matter how small, has been a source of anxiety.

Will I break out in a cold sweat? Feel lightheaded? Collapse on the floor?

Fearing a repeat performance, I get myself tied up in knots. It also should be evident by now that I’m not fond of needles. I’m 58 years old, but I still look away like a squeamish kid whenever I get a flu shot or some other routine vaccination. Just make it quick and tell me when it’s over.

All of the above makes me an unlikely candidate for a COVID-19 vaccine clinical trial. But a few months ago, when I read in my local newspaper that vaccine developers Pfizer and Moderna needed more volunteers, I decided to participate—or at least see if I could enroll in one of the studies.

My first call happened to be to a Wilmington, North Carolina clinic working on the Pfizer test. It is here that I want to make a disclosure. Pfizer is a client of W2O Group, the communications agency where I work. One has nothing to do with the other. I volunteered like the tens of thousands of others who want to support the global vaccine research and development effort.

The coordinator at the local study site called me back pretty quickly. How about 7 am the very next day? I was in.

First shot.

There was some trepidation. More than once, I considered backing out.

But I kept the appointment. I walked in the door at the clinic, and signed the required consent agreement. I sat down, took a deep breath, and looked away when the nurse swabbed my arm with antiseptic before taking a routine blood draw.

Everything was OK, so far. Next, they stuck the swab up my nose to collect a sample to look for signs of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Then, I waited. About 45 minutes later — time for the experimental vaccine to thaw out from deep freeze — I got either the experimental vaccine or the saltwater dummy vaccine. A nurse came in to give the mystery injection.

After 30 minutes of observation by a staffer, seeing no serious adverse effects, I was sent home.

Three weeks later, I returned on schedule for the second injection. Same deal as before. One week after that, they asked that I return for a follow-up blood draw.

Second shot.

Participants in this clinical trial are not told about the blood sample test results, in keeping with the stringent study protocol. I have not gotten an antibody test on my own since receiving the second shot, and still don’t know if I have developed neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2.

Here’s what I do know. Several hours after receiving each injection, I experienced what I would refer to as a hot flash lasting a few minutes or so. There was a touch of nausea, too—but only after the first shot.

Both sensations passed and never came back. As Pfizer seeks an Emergency Use Authorization from the FDA, who got what remains a secret to those of us in this more than 43,000-person study. All we know is that half of the participants received the real vaccine and half were given the placebo.

Did I experience a so-called placebo effect where people who receive the dummy version of a treatment or vaccine trick themselves into thinking they’re on the real thing or did I have a reaction to the genuine vaccine, one that might even suggest my immune system was being effectively primed against the virus?

I am not a doctor or a vaccine expert, and I will not hazard a guess. I have to wait for Pfizer to “unblind” the study to find out for sure.

Every Friday since receiving the first shot, I also have to go into a clinical trial app and input whether I have or had any COVID-19 symptoms. Thankfully my answer, so far, has been no.

After each clinic visit, I get $119 loaded onto a special debit card the office provides. I am not doing this for the pocket money. I am doing it because I have trust and faith in science and in the scientists—the people—who prove or disprove that science.

For nearly 10 years, I covered the biopharmaceutical industry as an on-air reporter at the business cable network, CNBC. I regularly interviewed scientists, researchers, therapeutics developers, and corporate executives.

For the past 10 years, since transitioning to become a communications consultant, I have worked alongside dozens of biopharmaceutical company scientists, academic researchers and clinicians, helping them talk about their passion, ingenuity, and data. 

They are the most intelligent, disciplined, rigorous, uncompromising, fact-driven people I have ever met.

If I received the vaccine, I’ll have some peace of mind. But I will continue to wear a mask, wash my hands, and maintain physical distance at least until the public health experts say we can get back to normal.

If I was injected with the saline solution, I will wait my turn to receive a vaccine, if or when it’s approved by the FDA. Since I’m not in a high-risk group, an essential worker or on the front lines, that could be a while.

People tell me on social media that I am brave and courageous for volunteering to be in a COVID-19 vaccine study. I am neither. I’m just a needle-phobic guy who wants to play a very small role in getting us out of this hell. Each of us has a role to play, large or small.

From 2000-2010, Mike Huckman was CNBC’s pharmaceuticals reporter.  He is currently the Global Practice Leader, Executive Communications at W2O Group.

24
Nov
2020

Getting Married in 2020. One of Many Difficult Family Decisions

Carolyn Ng, managing director, Vertex Ventures HC

So there it was, hanging in the closet.

My carefully chosen bridal gown, with its lace in a delicate shade of ivory. Beside it was my bridal veil, featherlight, translucent, and freshly purchased just the day before the wedding.

When Anna, my girlfriend, gingerly pinned it on my head, I heard the words of my mother sounding in my head. She had once told me, sweet and soft, “Don’t forget your veil. There is nothing more bridal and more beautiful than a bridal veil.”

My heart sank for a moment. Because I know my mother would have given anything to see me walk down the aisle as a bride, veil and all.

Yet I had to tell her, no, mum, Matt and I are getting married, but you will not be able to attend in person. We won’t allow you, or other family members to attend.

It was a difficult conversation, and 2020 was full of all the most difficult conversations, for us as individuals, as a family, as a country.

As the years pass, and as Matt and I grow old together, what would we want our wedding day to be remembered for? I want it to be centered on us and our love. But for it to be about us and our love, it has to, by my definition, naturally include all the important people around us in our lives. Friends and family who have shaped us, challenged us, cared for us, and molded Matt and I to be who we are today, choosing each other as life partners.

There is no celebration of “us,” if it does not include “them.”

And that is why this COVID-19 pandemic has taken such a toll on us all. It is not only the headlines-grabbing devastation that has robbed the US of more than 250,000 lives and over 20 million jobs. What is also draining and painful is the multitude of mundane daily decisions we have all been deliberating over and over in the past nine months, calculating the risks of a deadly virus exposure against the very human need for togetherness.

After all, it is this need for social interactions and physical closeness that define us all as human beings.

Weddings present a special conundrum in the pandemic. We got engaged in November 2019, and were originally planning to be married in July of 2020.

How did we change plans? Well, one thing for sure, we certainly did NOT want our parents and aunts and uncles and any of our lovely guests catching the SARS-CoV-2 virus from our wedding. Given our professions — we are both healthcare venture capitalists — we have front row access to scientific and clinical knowledge pertaining to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and what it is doing to public health and the economy.

They say with knowledge comes power. And I would add, the power to act responsibly.

So, some tears were shed. Some hearts broken.

But eventually all of our parents and family members agreed to stay in the safety of their respective homes and not fly to attend our wedding in person. Instead of the original 150-person guest list, we had a couple of our dearest local friends witness (and operate the Zoom for) our wedding, which they did with aplomb. Our wedding was held outdoors in a beautiful private garden, and we also made sure that all of us involved had a negative COVID-19 test within that week of our wedding. Face masks were given to our in-person guests as wedding favors.

It was not completely risk-free. We recognized that. But we could conscientiously say that utmost effort was taken to reduce COVID-19 risk to as low as possible, while allowing for a figment of magic to still be conjured for our special day.

I would like to think there was still magic in the air, and that all of our Zoom wedding guests could feel it. It was as magical as a video technology like Zoom could allow you to feel. We had a couple of technical glitches of course, as any respectable wedding would have. But save for a few hangovers, we were immensely fortunate that our beautiful wedding concluded with no real sequelae. I mean the COVID-19 types.

Not every wedding couple has been as lucky as we were. Some took bigger risks and faced dire and deadly consequences. Barely two weeks after our nuptials, I read with a heavy heart an article authored by the CDC on the wedding in August which turned into a nightmarish super-spreader event.

In that case, the couple from California held a 55-person indoor wedding in rural Maine. It was reported that almost none of the guests wore masks indoors, nor did they maintain physical distancing of at least 6 feet apart. At least 177 infection cases were linked to this single event, including outbreaks at a long-term care facility and a correctional facility, which were 100 and 200 miles away from the wedding venue!

Tragically, seven people died from COVID-19 as a result of this wedding.

And even more tragically, perhaps, none of those who died were even in attendance. They were all secondary and tertiary infection cases. The virus has won the R0 game.

To have your wedding be the cause of seven innocent people’s deaths? I cannot imagine the pain and anguish of the newlywed couple. That burden of guilt and despair that will forever lace the memory of the day they tied the knot. An event of negligence, a lifetime of regrets.

Regrets. We desperately try to avoid them. Every critical decision, step, action that we make in our lives, we are propelled to take the ones that will render the highest probability of “no regrets”.

In a pandemic, these decisions that would give us “no regrets” become way more difficult to make.

Pre-COVID-19, we had been talking fondly, for the longest time, of a visit to Kentucky. There, we would visit Matt’s grandmother. He calls her “Mommom” in the most endearing way, and I hear lovely stories of how he grew up spending the most wonderful time with her when she was still living in Philadelphia.

And then the pandemic hit and turned the world upside down, killing people and infecting many more. We put our Kentucky trip plans on ice. We could visit her in 2021, we said. Vaccines would be coming and we would be visiting her safely, we said. We would also do a bourbon tasting tour, we said.

Mommom will love you so much when she meets you, Matt said.

Mommom, 91, passed away this past weekend.

We never made it out to Kentucky. Matt did not get to say his good-bye to his closest grandmother. I never got to meet this incredible woman who was part of what made Matt who he is today.

Regrets and also sorrow. How desperately we avoid them. Our scientist/doctor selves keep reminding us that it was a prudent decision we made not flying over this year and introducing additional virus risk to Mommom who was obviously in a high-risk age group. But nothing can stop our human hearts from bleeding.

We can’t help but ask ourselves, “Could we have done this?” or “Could we have done that?” to see her one last time?

We felt the tug again to see family this Thanksgiving. But seeing the surge to more than 180,000 cases a day in the US, we decided to cancel our flights from San Francisco to Philadelphia. It is cold this time of the year in Philly, rendering outdoor dining impractical and social distancing difficult. Flying also introduces additional risks to our parents and we are not confident how we can mitigate them without quarantines and testing. In short, we will not be tasting Matt’s mum’s famous 25-pound turkey this year.

So with Thanksgiving and Christmas around the corner, how would you like this year’s special family holidays to be remembered?

There are trade-offs in every arrangement we make in the midst of a global pandemic. But may we choose actions that we may live with for years to come even post-pandemic, conscientiously, responsibly and lovingly. And without regrets, if we are so blessed.

Carolyn Ng and Matt McAviney at their wedding. (Credit: iPhone photography by Kevin Dai, Vivo Capital)

 

Written, in loving tribute, to my husband Matt McAviney’s grandmother “Mommom”, who left us this past weekend peacefully. I wish I have had the chance to get to know you.

23
Nov
2020

Medicines Based on Unusual Genetic Traits: Andrew Farnum on The Long Run

Today’s guest on The Long Run is Andrew Farnum.

Andrew is the CEO of Seattle-based Variant Bio.

Andrew Farnum, CEO, Variant Bio

Variant Bio is a startup seeking to discover new drugs, by finding gene variants in rare ethnic groups. It’s especially interested in what can be learned by sequencing exceptional groups of people in countries where there hasn’t been much sequencing.

This is a company seeking to bring the benefits of an exciting new technology to a wider group of traditionally underserved people. If Variant is successful, it could help improve health and wellbeing in these rare ethnic groups, as well as wider groups of people all around the world.

Andrew comes to this challenge after spending 9 years working on the $2 billion strategic investment fund at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. That gave him an up-close look at some of the most exciting technologies, the best biomedical entrepreneurs, and the classic challenges of how to broadly improve health outcomes in poor countries.

He has thought long and hard about how to build trust with many different players to execute on a vision like the one at Variant Bio.

Please join me and Andrew Farnum on The Long Run.

23
Nov
2020

A New Model for Vaccine Communications Grounded in Science and Empathy

Mike Kuczkowski, founder and CEO, Orangefiery

With COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths surging, the impressive vaccine results from Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and now AstraZeneca arrive just in time to provide some needed hope.

But for these vaccines to bring the pandemic to an end, enough people need to be willing to take them. That’s not a given.

Various polls have told a story this year about a rising tide of hesitancy. Polls in September showed a slim majority of Americans – 51 percent in one survey – are willing to take COVID-19 vaccines. More recent surveys show a slight uptick in confidence.

About 65 to 70 percent of people will need to either survive COVID-19 infections or get vaccinated in order for us to achieve herd immunity, according to the World Health Organization. In the U.S., that’s 182 million adults. (Based on 70 percent of 260 million US adults, according to US Census Bureau.)

While vaccines for infectious diseases such as measles, polio, tetanus and smallpox are widely regarded as the greatest public health interventions in history after clean drinking water, global vaccination rates have been flattening or declining in many parts of the world for the past two decades.

Vaccine hesitancy is a complex phenomenon. It is rooted in social and cultural issues like parental authority, historical experiences, religious views and confidence in various information sources. Anyone can be vaccine hesitant — there’s not a clear correlation between levels of education, wealth or access to information and vaccine hesitancy.

The traditional public health communications response in the face of these trends has been to speak louder and more emphatically about the importance of vaccination and to highlight the risks of vaccine refusal on communities. It hasn’t worked.

Heidi Larson, director, Vaccine Confidence Project

That’s because the conversation about vaccines isn’t really about vaccines. Writing about cases where communities have refused vaccination, Heidi J. Larson, Ph.D., director of the Vaccine Confidence Project in London and author of Stuck: How Vaccine Rumors Start—and Why They Don’t Go Away says:

“Vaccine revolts unleash underlying sentiments about personal and collective histories, relationships with government, big business and international bodies.”

Vaccine hesitancy, it seems, is about power, fear and trust. Overlay these trends on our pandemic moment – with declining trust in our public health institutions, rising misinformation, a polarized media and social media environment –and it’s a recipe for resistance.

So how do we respond? I’ve seen people ask who this generation’s Elvis Presley is, suggesting that a well-lit photo of the right celebrity will turn the tide of public opinion. There’s certainly a role for celebrity influencers, but if vaccine hesitancy is rooted in issues of power and control, something more will be needed. COVID-19 presents an opportunity to do something dramatically different in vaccine communications, an approach that abandons a paternalistic tone in favor of a shared decision-making model and potentially reframes the problem of vaccine hesitancy.

There are some efforts like this underway. In July, an interdisciplinary working group convened by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security produced a report urging the groups involved in vaccine development to take a ‘design thinking’ approach that put the public at the center of the effort. The recommendations emphasized the need to understand public expectations, earn public confidence in the fairness and even-handedness of vaccine allotment and availability, make vaccines available in familiar settings and communicate in meaningful, relevant and personal terms.

We can do this. But it means rethinking how we talk about vaccines and how we engage people around them. From a positioning standpoint, vaccination messaging has to be grounded in the science, but it has to focus on things that are more personal and meaningful than efficacy and safety information. Think about common everyday concerns — jobs, schools, restaurant dining, travel — that will be enabled by a successful vaccination program.

It also requires a dynamic set of outreach and communications strategies that will be rooted not in selling but in education and engagement.

Here are a few examples of things various stakeholders should consider doing:

  • Vaccine manufacturers should produce robust analyses of their data in peer-reviewed publications and ensure wide distribution of their findings to key opinion leaders (KOLs), relevant medical societies, allied health professionals and patients, the latter using patient-accessible language
  • The federal government should lead a strong vaccine distribution effort, prioritizing the geographies and communities where the vaccine can be most effective in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 and protecting frontline workers and vulnerable populations
  • State and local governments, in coordination with federal authorities, should create awareness campaigns that position vaccines broadly as an offer, not a mandate, but that emphasize their value in ending the pandemic
  • Insurers and policymakers should set minimal copayments or waive cost-sharing provisions for vaccines to ensure broad access, particularly for the most vulnerable people
  • Healthcare professionals should counsel people with patience, recognizing that in many cases the concerns people express in rational terms may often reflect emotional issues such as fear, vulnerability and powerlessness
  • Advocacy groups should create tailored communications for their audiences, particularly patients with health conditions that put them at higher risk for severe COVID-19
  • Employers, who have found themselves in the unaccustomed position of communicating about health-related topics to employees and customers, should embrace an appropriate role in vaccine communications, educating leadership teams on vaccine data and recommending vaccination to employees, particularly those in roles that place them at risk of infection
  • Nonprofits that serve at-risk communities should redouble outreach efforts to reach those whom the pandemic has shown are so clearly disproportionately impacted by COVID-19
  • Vaccine experts, public health experts and epidemiologists in academia and government should serve as trusted sources to media outlets and other communities (including social media) to address misinformation and disinformation in clear but compassionate terms
  • Media outlets should write extensively about vaccine issues — the good and if necessary, the bad — and aspire to provide a fully accurate picture of the risks and benefits, knowing that in past vaccine experience there has been an overemphasis on stories that lacked a scientific basis in fact
  • Government should make an effort to engage and solicit involvement from influencers, even non-scientific ones, who have a strong following in key communities and on social media. In so doing, there should be an effort to provide them with access to trusted, scientific sources and resources that can help them shape their comments in accurate ways
  • Social media platforms should monitor and flag factually inaccurate posts and point participants in the direction of accurate information
  • Celebrities who appeal to different age, gender and demographic groups should join the cause, reinforcing trust in trustworthy sources and encouraging people to ask the right questions and take appropriate actions

In short, it will take a team effort. A big one. One that is less reliant on authority and more invested in transparency, authenticity and two-way communications. An effort that treats people like they’re smart, have agency and can make their own decisions. Which, after all, is true.

We all have a stake in ending this pandemic. We appear to have worked out crucial aspects of the science. That, in turn, gives us the opportunity to talk about the science in transparent, accessible ways, and engage people in the decision about getting a vaccine with dignity. In so doing, we can achieve the goal of herd immunity that would end the pandemic.

Over the long term, this new model for communication about COVID-19 vaccines could set the stage for more successful vaccination campaigns. That’s worth our valuable time and energy.

 

Mike Kuczkowski is the founder and CEO of Orangefiery, a consulting and communications firm that serves biotech, pharmaceutical and nonprofit clients in healthcare. With more than 25 years of experience in consulting, communications, politics and journalism, he and his team help organizations navigate complex issues of public interest and create growth and change through a combination of insights, messaging, engagement and organizational learning. He is a trustee of the Institute for Public Relations.

20
Nov
2020

Why the Operation Warp Speed Vaccine Studies Aren’t Limited to Severe Disease

Dr. Larry Corey is an internationally renowned expert in virology, immunology, and vaccine development and a leader of the COVID-19 Prevention Network (CoVPN), which was formed by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the U.S. National Institutes of Health to respond to the global pandemic. He is a Professor of Medicine and Virology at University of Washington and a Professor in the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division and past President and Director of Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.

[Editor’s Note: a version of this article was first published on Nov. 13 on the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center. —LT ]

The COVID-19 Operation Warp Speed (OWS) trials have taken some criticism in the medical press, and lay press, for evaluating what some consider to be “trivial” characteristics of mild COVID-19 disease.

Some are arguing that it would make more sense to evaluate vaccine efficacy entirely on ability to prevent severe COVID-19 disease, hospitalizations and deaths.

There’s a reason why the trials weren’t focused entirely on those narrow parameters. Allow me a few minutes to explain.

The trial protocols for four major vaccine developers – Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca and Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) — show that the primary endpoint of the OWS vaccine trials is a reduction of coronavirus disease.

The disease is defined broadly in this case, and includes reducing the signs and symptoms of mild COVID-19 illness (e.g., headache, cough, fever, myalgias, signs of loss of taste and smell).

By including mild COVID-19 disease within a primary endpoint, the trials can capture the wide range of symptoms, including sometimes surprising symptoms, observed in patients with COVID-19.

This approach will ultimately allow for vaccines, if successful, to be given to the widest group of people possible – not just a couple important subpopulations. The trials should provide the kind of evidence necessary for efficient real-world rapid assessment of the vaccines’ effect on COVID-19.

For companies developing vaccines, inclusion of mild COVID-19 disease within a primary endpoint for the OWS trials makes sense; these companies recognize the wide range of COVID-19 disease, from mild to severe, and want to produce an effective vaccine with widespread benefit.

Reading further into the vaccine trial protocols shows that a wealth of information is being collected for analysis. Within each trial, there is a deeper evaluation of disease severity: the trials have an endpoint that includes measurement of disease severity at diagnosis and over three weeks of follow-up for every participant who develops COVID-19.

If one looks in the tables at the end of the protocols, (Table 17 in the Moderna protocol, Table 4 in the AstraZeneca protocol, and Appendices 2, 6-8 in the Janssen protocol), one sees that every person in the trials with COVID-19 infection is intensively followed from the time of diagnosis over the next three weeks with standardized assessments of their signs and symptoms. The assessment includes hard objective measurements, such as the use of medical facilities, hospitalizations, and what as investigators we all hope is rare – death.

At the time the vaccine trials were designed in the spring and summer, there was no consensus about the frequency with which those who volunteered to enroll would actually get COVID-19. More importantly, it was unknown what the spectrum of COVID-19 disease among trial participants would be.

In fact, we were pretty certain we would not see what, at that point, had been the norm in the pandemic (i.e., large numbers of people presenting to hospital emergency rooms with full-blown end-stage pneumonia). We suspected that as testing became more widely available in the summer and fall, the vaccine trials would begin to reflect some of this change. We expected participants would report to their investigators earlier, with milder COVID-19 symptoms than what was, at that time, being seen in medical practice or in any published literature.

Healthy volunteers who enroll in clinical trials, especially ones with the complexity and follow-up required in the COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials, generally have to be interested and concerned about the disease.

The design of the OWS trials involves active disease surveillance. There is essentially no barrier to COVID-19 testing for the 30,000 participants per study. Moreover, these 30,000 participants are knowledgeable about COVID-19, likely anxious about getting the disease, and the experience of serving as a trial participant makes them attuned to any aspect of the disease, all the time. Participants in the trials receive weekly calls/texts about coming to the clinic at the first signs of any respiratory illness or fever. Importantly, trial participants have essentially unlimited access to COVID-19 testing.

Thus, we felt that a clinical classification of COVID-19 disease severity at the time of diagnosis would not really provide an accurate reflection of a participant’s COVID-19 illness. We expected that most trial participants would get worse after an initial diagnosis. As such, the real endpoint evaluation of disease severity – and hence the ultimate “primary endpoint” – would be the constellation of signs and symptoms that were collected over the two to three weeks post-diagnosis. The section outlining the detailed follow-up of COVID-19 cases within each study had its own schematic diagrams/tables and was “costed out” for site funding separately.

One of the harmonizing aspects across all the vaccine trials is that participants with COVID-19 are queried daily with a standardized questionnaire evaluating their signs and symptoms on a mild-to-moderate-to-severe scale. Samples for viral shedding in saliva or the nose are taken every second to fourth day, depending on the protocol, to evaluate the duration for which the virus is shed. Duration of fever and pulse oximetry data are also recorded.

These data allow one to grade the rate of progression, duration of symptoms, duration of signs, duration and severity of systemic effects, and need for any follow-up medical interventions (e.g., physician visits, telemedicine visits, ER visits, hospitalizations, and any complications of hospitalizations). Evaluations of these data are blinded and will be analyzed between the vaccinated and placebo recipients to determine whether disease duration and severity are reduced.

Data outlined in the prior paragraph are listed as secondary endpoints in the trials. While “relegated” to this section, it does not mean their importance is secondary. This was highlighted in a recent paper on using burden of disease as the primary endpoint in COVID-19 vaccine studies by Mehrotra and colleagues, as well as recent analyses of data from the monoclonal antibody studies conducted by Lilly and Regeneron.

The monoclonal antibody studies do a nice job of aggregating medically complicated disease to show the benefits of early use of the antibodies. They also show one approach to compiling recorded signs and symptoms of COVID-19 to show clinical benefit to patients over time. This offers a model to structure analyses both within and between individual and collated vaccine studies. In addition, the prospective close follow-up that will occur in the vaccine studies lays the groundwork for future studies and maximizes what we learn from the 150 expected COVID-19 cases in each vaccine trial of 30,000 participants.

It is unlikely that, in any individual trial, we will see enough hospitalization and death to evaluate efficacy of a vaccine versus placebo for severe COVID-19 disease. Obtaining this information within a trial would require lengthening the time to determine whether a vaccine works by 18 months.

That is simply too long to wait in a fast-moving pandemic.

Vaccines for other diseases offer a useful perspective about the inclusion of mild illness as a primary endpoint within a trial: data from other vaccines show that those capable of modifying outpatient/modest illnesses have almost universally been capable of modifying more severe illness. With most vaccines, efficacy in reducing the severe spectrum of a disease is actually somewhat higher than for mild aspects of a disease.

Let us hope that vaccination will easily produce discernible, measurable, medically important differences in COVID-19 disease in the populations enrolled in the trials. The current surge in activity in the U.S. reminds us of the urgent need for vaccines.

Dr. Larry Corey is an internationally renowned expert in virology, immunology, and vaccine development and a leader of the COVID-19 Prevention Network (CoVPN), which was formed by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the U.S. National Institutes of Health to respond to the global pandemic. He is a Professor of Medicine and Virology at University of Washington and a Professor in the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division and past President and Director of Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.

Sources:

1 Pfizer. PF-07302048 (BNT162 RNA-Based COVID-19 Vaccines) Protocol C4591001. 2020. https://pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2020-09/C4591001_Clinical_Protocol.pdf.

2 Moderna TX. Protocol mRNA-1273-P301, Amendment 3. 2020. https://www.modernatx.com/sites/default/files/mRNA-1273-P301-Protocol.pdf.

3 AstraZeneca. Clinical Study Protocol – Amendment 2 AZD1222- D8110C00001. 2020. https://s3.amazonaws.com/ctr-med-7111/D8110C00001/52bec400-80f6-4c1b-8791-0483923d0867/c8070a4e-6a9d-46f9-8c32-cece903592b9/D8110C00001_CSP-v2.pdf.

4 Janssen Vaccines & Prevention BV. VAC31518 (JNJ-78436735) clinical protocol VAC31518COV3001 amendment 1. 2020. https://www.jnj.com/coronavirus/covid-19-phase-3-study-clinical-protocol.

5 Moderna TX. Protocol mRNA-1273-P301, Amendment 3. 2020. https://www.modernatx.com/sites/default/files/mRNA-1273-P301-Protocol.pdf.

6 AstraZeneca. Clinical Study Protocol – Amendment 2 AZD1222- D8110C00001. 2020. https://s3.amazonaws.com/ctr-med-7111/D8110C00001/52bec400-80f6-4c1b-8791-0483923d0867/c8070a4e-6a9d-46f9-8c32-cece903592b9/D8110C00001_CSP-v2.pdf.

7 Janssen Vaccines & Prevention BV. VAC31518 (JNJ-78436735) clinical protocol VAC31518COV3001 amendment 1. 2020. https://www.jnj.com/coronavirus/covid-19-phase-3-study-clinical-protocol.

8 Mehrotra, DV, et al. “Clinical Endpoints for Evaluating Efficacy in COVID-19 Vaccine Trials.” Annals of Internal Medicine. https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-6169. Published: 22 October 2020(https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-6169. Published: 22 October 2020).

9 Chen, Peter, et al. “SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Antibody LY-CoV555 in Outpatients with Covid-19.” The New England Journal of Medicine. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2029849. Published: 28 October 2020(https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2029849. Published: 28 October 2020).

20
Nov
2020

Moderna, Pfizer Nail COVID-19 Vaccines. Now Comes the Hard Part

Luke Timmerman, founder & editor, Timmerman Report

It wasn’t the dominant headline it should have been, and few are in the mood to celebrate with the pandemic out of control, but this was a week to celebrate a monumental scientific victory that provides hope for 2021.

Moderna dazzled everyone on Monday by reporting its mRNA vaccine candidate for COVID-19, developed in partnership with the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Disease, was 94.5 percent effective at preventing people from getting sick. The data were strong. Of the 30,000 volunteers who enrolled in this study, 90 in the placebo group came down with COVID-19 compared with 5 in the vaccine group.

Importantly, of the 11 cases of severe disease spotted in the study, all were among people in the placebo group. Most of the reported adverse events were mild to moderate, with injection site reactions and fatigue showing up in small numbers.

Science showed it can light the way out of the pandemic.

A couple days later, we got further evidence.

Pfizer and BioNTech showed that a competing mRNA vaccine technology is also the real deal for COVID-19. The companies provided a detailed update from its 43,000-participant study of its COVID-19 vaccine. Pfizer/BioNTech showed theirs was 95 percent effective, with 162 cases of disease showing up in the placebo group compared with 8 in the vaccine group. That same level of protection extended to people over 65 – a key subgroup of vulnerable people.

We can expect more vaccines to come down the pike from other companies using different platforms.

That’s the good news. The biopharma community came together with partners in academia and government and worked like no other time since World War II. The global scientific enterprise, when focused and mobilized by a threat of this magnitude, is a marvel.

It’s been heartening to see people in industry set aside the usual competitive rivalries to cheer for the success of others.

Some of the conversation will rightly focus on supply constraints with mRNA vaccines, cold-chain shipping and storage logistics, and equitable distribution plans. The commitment ought to be there to work through those challenges all the way to the last mile, because the products are that good and fighting the disease is that important. These are solvable problems.

Now for the bad news.

What worries me the most is that this vaccine is arriving at a time when the US is ailing from a social disease. The infodemic – a supernova of misinformation and conspiracy theorizing and denial of reality – poses a threat to the vaccine relief effort that will hang over our heads for months.

The polls, if you can trust them anymore, are showing high levels of “vaccine hesitancy”. During September and October, between 50-60 percent of American adults expressed willingness to get vaccinated, according to Gallup.

Those numbers may go up now that the Moderna and Pfizer news has been so positive in November.

But we can’t just take that for granted and assume everyone will line up when the shots are available. Anti-vaccine activists used to be written off as fringe actors. But you can see that show coming to the main stage now in an extreme, fractured world.

Some people on the extreme left will refuse the vaccine, and shout loudly, about a Big Pharma greedfest or a perceived plot to give kids autism. Some people on the extreme right will refuse the vaccine, and shout loudly, about a Deep State plot (or a Big Pharma moneymaking plot).

Some will say it’s just the flu, and the harsh non-pharmaceutical interventions we’ve had to endure this year are worse than the disease itself. Who needs a vaccine if it’s just a hoax to begin with?

Even reasonable people without an axe to grind will ask questions such as: Do we have enough long-term safety data to know it’s safe?

Reasonable questions, of course, aren’t really at the center of debate anymore. Bill Gates was asked about pandemic conspiracy mongering at the New York Times Dealbook conference this week. He’s now the target of a widely-shared conspiracy theory that says he’s either trying to make money off the vaccines, or use the vaccine campaign as a false front to implant microchips into people to achieve global mind control, or some combination of that and worse.

He looked a bit flummoxed by this question. He didn’t have a good answer on how he deals with this, or how to put this infodemic back into Pandora’s Box.

A vaccine that’s 95 percent effective at preventing illness is remarkably good. But, obviously, it’s only good if you can get a couple hundred million people in a nation of 330 million people to take it over a period of months. And the way you get 200 million people to take a vaccine is if people believe it’s good for them, and their community, to protect against a pernicious virus.

This ought to be an easy sell. But the vaccination campaign to come will have to fight an uphill battle against a rip-roaring, many-sided misinformation enemy. It’s really a battle for science itself, and the scientific way of thinking, as opposed to other kinds of evidence-free assertions, and conspiratorial thinking that are thriving in the online engagement platforms.

As scientific citizens, we can’t fix the infodemic alone. But we have roles to play. We have non-scientific friends, family, and neighbors who look to us for trusted views on the fast-moving, constantly changing state of the science. We can serve as trusted brokers of information in these conversations. We can try to listen more, and keep the eye-rolling to a minimum (I have to work on that).

These conversations will surely be frustrating for some over the holidays. But let’s be as clear as we can about the science, as honest as we can about what’s known and what isn’t. Hard as it may be to stomach, we have to be patient with people who are stressed, and might need a little more time to come around and get themselves vaccinated in 2021.  

As Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said at the Dealbook conference: “Trust is lost in buckets, and gained back in drips.”

Financings

San Francisco and London-based SR One announced it has closed on its first $500 million, following the completion of its transition from a GSK corporate venture firm into an independent venture firm. Simeon George, a veteran of SR One since 2007, is the CEO of the new independent SR One.

Bedford, Mass.-based Stoke Therapeutics, a developer of drugs that upregulate protein expression, raised $97.5 million in an IPO at $39 a share.

South San Francisco-based Imago BioSciences raised $80 million in a Series C financing led by Farallon Capital Management. The company is developing treatments for myeloproliferative neoplasms.

Palo Alto, Calif.-based Medable, a tech company that enables digital and decentralized clinical trials, raised $91 million in a Series C financing round led by Sapphire Ventures. PPD participated.

Shanghai-based D3 Bio, a cancer and immunology-based drug developer, raised $200 million in a Series A financing that included Boyu Capital, Matrix Partners China, Sequoia Capital China, Temasek, and WuXi AppTec’s Corporate Venture Fund.

Sotera Health, a lab testing company, raised $1.1 billion in an IPO at $23 a share.

Santa Clara, Calif.-based Rebus Biosystems raised a $20 million B financing to continue “building innovative tools to enable spatial omics without compromise.” Illumina Ventures led.

Seattle-based Umoja Biopharma raised $53 million in a Series A financing led by MPM Capital and Qiming Venture Partners USA. The company is working on an in vivo immunotherapy platform.

Palo Alto, Calif.-based Jiya Acquisition, a SPAC sponsored by Samsara Biocapital, raised $100 million in an IPO at $10 a share.

South San Francisco-based InterVenn Biosciences raised $34 million in a Series B financing led by Anzu Partners. The company plans to start sales and marketing of its high-throughput-glycoproteomic diagnostic for ovarian cancer.

Data That Mattered

South San Francisco-based Day One Biopharmaceuticals reported on preliminary results from nine children and young adult patients with relapsed low-grade gliomas. The patients got Day One’s oral, once-weekly, pan-RAF kinase inhibitor that’s designed to get into the brain. Two of 8 patients with RAF gene fusions had Complete Responses, while three had Partial Responses, and three more had Stable Disease. Dana-Farber and the Pacific Pediatric Neuro-Oncology Consortium (PNOC) conducted the study. Day One said it plans to move next to a registration study in children and young adults with recurrent or progressive BRAF-altered low-grade gliomas. (See TR’s in-depth coverage of Day One’s Series A financing and clinical strategy, May 2020).

GSK and Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV), announced that tafenoquine, an 8-aminoquinoline, passed a clinical trial that looked at relapse rates for of Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax) malaria in children and adolescents. Researchers found that 95 percent of the study’s 60 participants had no recurrence of P. vivax malaria during four months of follow-up. That was with a weight-based dosing regimen. Results are consistent with prior findings in adults.

Gilead Sciences, a week after facing a tough competitive challenge from ViiV Healthcare in HIV prophylaxis for women, announced that its own long-acting HIV-1 capsid inhibitor passed a Phase 2/3 study in heavily pre-treated patients. The drug, lenacapavir, is designed to be given subcutaneously every six months, as part of an anti-retroviral regimen. Gilead said 21 of 24 patients (88 percent) saw at least a 0.5 log reduction in HIV-1 after 14 days on this treatment, as a functional monotherapy.

New York-based Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics failed in a Phase III study of a cell therapy for ALS.

Science

  • Diagnosis and Tracking of Past SARS-CoV-2 Infection in a Large Study of Vo’, Italy Through T-Cell Receptor Sequencing. MedRxiv. Nov. 12. (Rachel M. Gittelman of Adaptive Biotechnologies, Enrico Lavezzo et al)
  • An Engineered Antibody with Broad Protective Efficacy in Murine Models of SARS and COVID-19. BioRxiv. Nov. 17. ( Garrett Rappazzo of Adimab, Longping Tse of UNC-Chapel Hill, et al Adagio Therapeutics)
  • Safety and immunogenicity of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine administered in a prime-boost regimen in young and old adults (COV002): a single-blind, randomised, controlled, phase 2/3 trial. The Lancet. Nov. 18. (Mahesh Ramasamy et al at University of Oxford)
  • Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers. Annals of Internal Medicine. Nov. 18. (Henning Bundgaard et al at Copenhagen University Hospital)
  • Advancing New Tools for Infectious Disease. Science. Nov. 20. (Rajesh Gupta of VIR Biotechnology)
  • Immunological memory to SARS-CoV-2 assessed for greater than six months after infection. (Jennifer Dan, Jose Mateus et al at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology).
  • Gender- and age-related differences in misuse of face masks in COVID-19 prevention in central European cities. MedRxiv. Nov. 13. (Linda Eckl and Stefan Hansch of University of Regensberg, Germany)
  • JAK Inhibition Reduces SARS-CoV-2 Liver Infectivity and Modulates Inflammatory Responses to Reduce Morbidity and Mortality. Science Advances. Nov. 13. (Justin Stebbing of Imperial College London et al)

Science Features

  • A gym trainer exposed 50 athletes to Covid-19, but no one else got sick because of a ventilation redesign. CNN. Nov. 19. (Mallory Hughes)
  • Making the Vaccines Will Be the Hard Part. NYT. Nov. 17. (Katie Thomas)
  • The Surprising Mental Toll of COVID-19. The Rise in Depression and Anxiety is Worse Than Expected, Especially Among Young Adults. Scientific American. December issue. (Claudia Wallis)
  • Welcome to Nova Scotia, the Land that Proves Beating Back COVID19 is Possible. NYT. Nov. 18. (Stephanie Nolen)
  • Can At-Home Testing Curb the Pandemic? The Atlantic. Nov. 18. (Olga Khazan)
  • The mRNA Vaccine News is Good. But Let’s Keep the Masks for Now. Timmerman Report. Nov. 18. (Larry Corey)
  • The Thorny, Messy Topic of Why We Don’t Have RCTs for Masks as Source Control. Nov. 8. (Zeynep Tufekci)
  • As COVID-19 Soars, Schools Attempt to Find Ways Through the Crisis. Science. Nov. 18. (Gretchen Vogel and Jennifer Couzin-Frankel)
  • We’ll Need More Than One Vaccine to Beat the Pandemic. Wired. Nov. 13. (Adam Rogers)

Policy

Science Communications

  • Five Rules for Evidence Communication. Nature. Nov. 18. (Michael Blastland et al)
  • No One is Listening to Us. Healthcare Workers Can’t Go on Like This. The Atlantic. Nov. 12. (Ed Yong)
  • The Enraging Déjà vu of a Third Coronavirus Wave. ProPublica. Nov. 13. (Caroline Chen)

Deals

South San Francisco-based Twist Bioscience, the DNA synthesis company, partnered with New York-based Biotia on a nucleic acid hybridization capture-based research assay to detect, characterize, and monitor the SARS-CoV-2 virus for environmental surveillance. Biotia presented data on the test at Infectious Disease Week.

Twist had another interesting deal this week. The DNA synthesis company partnered with Illumina and Western Digital and Microsoft on a DNA data storage alliance. The alliance’s goal is to “help establish the foundations for a cost-effective commercial archival storage ecosystem for the explosive growth of digital data.” DNA, of course, is a compact molecule that can store information for a long time in many different environments. That might be useful for future historians to extract some meaning from the explosion of data – a supernova of information and misinformation – that has been the defining feature of the 21st century.

Pfizer and China-based LianBio, founded by Perceptive Advisors, agreed to collaborate on innovative new therapies for the China market. Pfizer will contribute $70 million of non-dilutive capital for in-licensing and co-development.

San Rafael, Calif.-based BioMarin Pharmaceutical formed a deal with Toronto-based Deep Genomics, an AI for drug discovery company. BioMarin will work with Deep Genomics to discover oligonucleotide drug candidates for four rare disease indications.

Our Shared Humanity

Johnson & Johnson committed $100 million over 5 years in a program to “eliminate health inequities for people of color.” That’s a strong word, eliminate. It needs to be met with tenacious long-term commitment. (Read Karl Simpson’s detailed Nov. 10 roundup of biopharma social and racial justice initiatives).

Life Science Cares, the nonprofit that organizes biotech companies to give to local charities focused on poverty, gave $755,000 of grants to 27 social service organizations in the Boston area. (TR is a proud supporter of Life Science Cares. See how you can give HERE).

The Mayo Clinic, the renowned institution in Rochester, Minnesota, reported that it has 900 staff who have contracted COVID-19. It is now reportedly “very worried” about whether it has the capacity to treat all the patients coming down with the novel coronavirus in its neighboring Midwestern states.

Regulatory Action

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals won EU approval for lumasiran (Oxlumo) for Primary Hyperoxaluria Type 1. It’s a rare kidney disease driven by a toxic metabolite (oxalate), which the Alnylam medicine is designed to stop. It’s the third marketed medicine from the RNA interference drug developer.

The FDA gave an Emergency Use Authorization to the first at-home COVID-19 test. The Lucira COVID-19 All-In-One Test Kit takes self-collected nasal swab samples in people age 14 and up who are suspected of having the novel coronavirus infection by their health care provider. Critics complained that it still requires a prescription, and therefore won’t achieve the wide adoption necessary to make an impact.

Eli Lilly and Incyte received an FDA Emergency Use Authorization for baricitinib, the oral JAK inhibitor, to be used in combo with remdesivir for COVID-19 patients in bad shape – those who require supplemental oxygen, mechanical ventilation, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO).

Bristol-Myers Squibb said its application to market the cell therapy lisocabtagene maraleucel (liso-cel) has been held up because the FDA couldn’t inspect a manufacturing plant in Texas. This is the CD-19 directed cell therapy for relapsed/refractory large B-cell lymphoma that was originally developed by Juno Therapeutics, and acquired by BMS through its acquisition of Celgene. Shareholders with Contingent Value Rights (CVRs) from the Celgene deal suffered another disappointment in this long-delayed program.

Personnel File

Waltham, Mass.-based Arrakis Therapeutics, the developer of small molecule drugs against RNA targets, hired Patrizio Renzetti as VP of human resources.

South San Francisco-based Veracyte, a molecular diagnostics company, created a new general manager structure. John Hanna, currently chief commercial officer, will become GM of endocrinology, breast cancer and lymphoma. Morton Frost, a new hire, will be GM of pulmonology. They both start the new roles Jan. 1.

Kudos

Merck CEO Ken Frazier won the Courage Against Hate award from the Anti-Defamation League. The award goes to “a visionary leader from the business community who uses their platform to promote understanding and unity in a complex world and to encourage others to actively make the world a better place.” Congratulations, Mr. Frazier. I salute you, and everyone in the biopharma community who lives those values every day.